Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY): 2025-10-06

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) closed higher after forming a bullish reversal pattern near 3280.
• Momentum picked up in late ET with RSI showing strength and no overbought conditions yet.
• Volatility increased as price moved within a widening Bollinger Band environment.
• Volume surged during the key 21:00–01:00 ET session, confirming buying pressure after an early drop.
• Price found support at 3280 (61.8% Fib) and broke above a prior high of 3330.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3308 on 2025-10-05 at 16:00 ET and closed at 3331 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06, with a high of 3347 and a low of 3222. The 24-hour volume was 39,870.76, and notional turnover reached ¥131,996,915. The price action reflected a strong recovery from a midday pullback.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key support level at 3280, which coincided with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior swing low, before forming a bullish reversal pattern. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 3280–3292 on 10/05 21:00 ET, followed by a confirmation rally above a prior high at 3330. A potential head and shoulders pattern was also invalidated, as price broke through the neckline with volume confirmation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line early in the morning of 10/06, signaling a short-term bullish bias. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA was below the 200-period MA, indicating a long-term bearish trend. Price closed above the 50-period MA for the first time in several days, suggesting a potential trend reversal.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the early hours of 10/06, confirming a bullish momentum shift, while RSI climbed into the 50–60 range, avoiding overbought territory. The RSI divergence seen during the 10/05 18:00–20:00 ET sell-off was resolved by the late-night rally, with a final close at 3331 suggesting strong conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 10/05 19:30–21:00 ET session and again in the early hours of 10/06. Price moved out of the upper Bollinger Band in the 10/06 14:30–15:30 ET window, indicating aggressive bullish momentum. The expansion of the bands supports the idea of a breakout in progress.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly concentrated between 21:00 ET and 01:00 ET, with the largest candle at 10/05 22:15 ET showing a turnover of ¥396,840 with a volume of 1,368.82. Notional turnover confirmed the price action, with no major divergences observed. The 10/06 01:00–03:00 ET session saw a significant increase in turnover as buyers pushed price above 3300 and held it through the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% retracement at 3280 acted as a strong support, and the 38.2% level at 3320 acted as resistance on 10/05. After breaking the 3330 level, the next target is the 100% Fib extension at 3385, which aligns with the upper Bollinger Band. A break above 3347 would validate a deeper bullish phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish setup, a potential backtest strategy could involve a long entry at the close of the bullish engulfing pattern at 3280, with a stop loss just below the 3273 level and a take profit at 3340. This setup would align with the 61.8% Fib support and a confirmed breakout above a prior high. If price maintains above the 50-period MA and RSI remains above 50, the trade could be held into the next 24 hours for further upside.