Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) on 2025-09-26

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) dropped from 3137.0 to 3088.0 during the 24-hour period, showing bearish bias.
• Price action showed multiple bearish engulfing patterns and a breakdown below key support at 3050.0.
• RSI and MACD confirmed oversold conditions at the close, hinting at potential short-term stabilization or reversal.
• Volatility expanded after 06:00 ET with a sharp decline, though turnover remained moderate, suggesting limited panic selling.
• Bollinger Bands indicate moderate volatility, with prices trading near the lower band for most of the session.

The 24-hour trading session for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) began at 3134.0 and closed at 3088.0, with a high of 3137.0 and a low of 3011.0. Total volume amounted to 18,692.09 with a turnover of 56,645,407.0 Yen. Price action showed a consistent bearish bias through most of the session, with a short-lived recovery attempt in the early hours of the morning.

Structure and formations revealed a bearish bias, with a clear breakdown below 3050.0 marking a critical support level. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 18:30 ET (16:30 JPT), followed by a doji at 20:45 ET (18:45 JPT), signaling indecision. The most notable bearish formation appeared at 22:30 ET (20:30 JPT), where a strong bearish candle closed at 3061.0 after opening near the day's high of 3080.0.

Moving averages indicated a strong bearish setup, with price closing below the 20-period and 50-period averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period line had been crossed below in recent days, aligning with the intraday bearish bias. MACD showed a bearish crossover in the morning, with the line below the signal, and RSI bottomed near 29 at the 24-hour close, indicating potential oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands highlighted moderate volatility, with prices near the lower band for the final two-thirds of the session, suggesting a possible rebound.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute chart showed price testing 61.8% retracement levels during pullbacks, particularly around 3066.0 and 3097.0. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level held near 3050.0, which was decisively broken during the session, pointing to further downside potential.

The price action and technical indicators suggest that Chainlink/Yen may see short-term consolidation near 3080.0–3090.0, with a risk of further bearish momentum should the 3050.0 level fail to hold. Investors should watch for a potential rebound from the oversold RSI levels, though the broader trend remains bearish.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy focuses on identifying key candlestick patterns such as bearish engulfing and doji near critical Fibonacci and moving average levels. A potential entry point could be triggered after a bearish engulfing candle closes below a key support level, confirmed by RSI reaching oversold territory. A stop-loss may be placed above the high of the triggering candle, with a target based on the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% level. This setup could be tested for its profitability and reliability during similar bearish breakdown scenarios.