Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) on 2025-09-22

• LINKJPY opened at ¥3423.0 and closed at ¥3144.0, down -8.18% over 24 hours.
• A sharp decline unfolded after 00:45 ET, with a 15-minute swing low to ¥3328.0.
• Volatility expanded midnight, peaking at ¥3343.0 before a bearish breakdown began.
• Volume spiked at 00:45 ET with 1329.93, aligning with a key breakdown.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with RSI entering oversold territory by morning.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at ¥3423.0 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at ¥3144.0 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of ¥3440.0 and a low of ¥3020.0. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10,359.43 units, with notional turnover amounting to ¥30,666,754.70. A bearish breakdown became evident after a sharp selloff at 00:45 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish breakdown pattern after testing a key resistance level at ¥3343.0, which failed to hold amid heavy volume. Following the breakdown, a series of lower highs and lower lows emerged, with bearish engulfing patterns visible in the 15-minute chart between 00:45–01:00 ET. A notable doji appeared at 02:15 ET, suggesting temporary indecision, but the downward bias reasserted quickly. Key support levels now appear at ¥3144.0, with a prior swing low at ¥3020.0 potentially offering further downside risk.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearish, with the 50-line crossing below the 20-line in a death cross formation. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA at ¥3385.0, above the 100-period at ¥3355.0, and the 200-period MA at ¥3330.0, reinforcing the bearish bias and suggesting continued downward pressure unless bulls reclaim above ¥3385.0.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 00:45 ET, confirming bearish momentum with a strong negative divergence from price action. RSI dropped into oversold territory by 08:00 ET at 23.5, but failed to show a bounce, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend. RSI remains below the 40 level, signaling weak bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically at the start of the breakdown, with price dropping below the lower Bollinger Band at ¥3328.0. The bands themselves widened, indicating increased uncertainty and a shift from consolidation to breakout trading. Price remained below the band’s midline for most of the session, with only a few short-lived bounces failing to close above the 20-period moving average.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 00:45 ET, with a massive 1329.93 units traded during the breakdown candle. Turnover also surged, confirming the move’s significance. Divergences appeared in the latter half of the session, with volume declining despite price remaining within a downtrend. This suggests decreasing conviction in the move, which could foreshadow a near-term pause or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥3440.0 to ¥3020.0, key retracement levels of 38.2% at ¥3269.0 and 61.8% at ¥3174.0 are now critical. Price is currently at ¥3144.0, just below the 61.8% level, indicating a potential area for support or a bounce. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent high suggest a continuation of the bearish trend unless bulls can reclaim the 38.2% retracement at ¥3288.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy proposes a short-biased approach, entering on a breakdown below the 15-minute 50-period moving average with a stop above the previous candle’s high. Targets are set at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. Given today’s price behavior—particularly the breakdown at 00:45 ET and subsequent consolidation below key moving averages—this approach would have triggered a short entry with strong alignment to today’s bearish momentum and volume confirmation.