Market Overview for Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) as of 2025-09-05

• Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) closed at 3388, down from an open of 3351 and a high of 3431, with a 24-hour volume of 7,045.09 and turnover of ¥23,329,198.
• Price formed a bearish reversal pattern following a sharp intraday rise to 3431, but failed to maintain momentum above 3400.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions, with bearish divergence emerging in late-session volume.
• Volatility expanded midday, with price testing both 3350 and 3400 levels as dynamic support and resistance.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted potential key reversal areas near 3350 and 3400.

Chainlink/Yen (LINKJPY) opened at 3351 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 3431 before closing at 3388 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 7,045.09 contracts, with a turnover of ¥23,329,198. Price action displayed clear intraday volatility and key psychological resistance at 3400, which failed to hold after a brief break above.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish candle from 3355 to 3431, but a large bearish candle followed, closing at 3388 and indicating potential bearish exhaustion. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 3400-3414, confirming a reversal. A doji candle appeared around 3394-3398, signaling indecision near the 3400 zone. The 3350 level acted as strong support, being tested multiple times during the day and showing resilience.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average oscillated between 3370 and 3380, while the 50-period MA hovered closer to 3360. Price broke above the 20 MA during the morning rally but quickly fell back below, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period MAs were not fully calculable due to limited data, but the 100-period MA was trending slightly downward, suggesting longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a positive divergence during the morning rally, but a bearish crossover occurred by the afternoon, confirming the reversal. RSI reached overbought territory above 70 during the push to 3431 and then fell sharply below 60, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish divergence formed in late-session volume and RSI, raising concerns about further downside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy assumes short-term bearish continuation following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern and a divergence in RSI and MACD. A sell entry at 3390 with a stop-loss above 3405 and a target of 3350 aligns with the observed structure and Fibonacci retracement levels. The 3370-3350 zone appears to be the next critical support cluster, where buyers may step in.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning hours, with the Bollinger Bands widening to over 60 points. Price reached the upper band during the rally to 3431, indicating overbought conditions, and fell back into the middle band during the bearish reversal. The 3350-3370 range is now acting as a key volatility reference, with price currently near the mid-band, suggesting consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the morning rally, peaking at ¥23,329,198. However, volume declined significantly during the bearish reversal, with price action not confirming the bearish move. This volume divergence suggests potential short-term buying interest but does not confirm a strong bullish reversal. Turnover remained relatively high, with no significant price-break divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the morning rally from 3350 to 3431, the 38.2% retracement level fell near 3400, which was confirmed as a key resistance. The 61.8% retracement level was around 3375, and price appears to be consolidating near this level. On the daily chart, the 3350-3431 move aligns with a 61.8% retracement from a prior bearish move, highlighting the potential for further consolidation or a bearish breakdown.

Looking ahead, the 3370-3350 support zone will be critical for determining short-term direction. If buyers fail to defend this level, a test of 3320 could follow. However, given the recent divergence and bearish engulfing pattern, a cautious bearish bias is warranted for the next 24 hours, with close attention to volume confirmation or reversal patterns.