Market Overview: Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) – Volatility Peaks Amid Divergence

• Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) rose to $24.43 intraday but closed at $24.20, reversing from a key resistance.
• Volume surged on the upside break, but price failed to confirm the move, suggesting potential rejection.
• RSI hit overbought levels and showed bearish divergence, indicating possible short-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands expanded with high volatility, and price closed near the upper band after a sharp rally.
• Fibonacci levels around $24.26 may act as a near-term ceiling with a retest of $23.95 as support in focus.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $22.94 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $24.43 by 2025-09-18 09:30 ET, before retreating to close at $24.20 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of approximately 6,098,031.31 USDT and a notional turnover of ~$146.3 million, reflecting heightened activity during the sharp intraday move. The pair displayed aggressive bullish momentum followed by a pullback, setting up potential key levels for near-term action.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern from 09:30 to 10:15 ET featured a high-wave top formation, where LINKUSDT reached a 24-hour high of $24.43 but then experienced a bearish reversal. A notable 4-hour doji formed around $24.29 at 10:00 ET, signaling indecision after the breakout. Key resistance appears to be around $24.30–24.40, while strong support levels are forming at $24.15–24.20 and $23.95–24.00.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA20) crossed above the 50-period SMA (SMA50) early in the session, confirming a bullish bias. However, by the end of the period, the close at $24.20 brought the 20-period SMA back below the 50-period SMA, suggesting a potential reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA sits at $23.75, while the 200-day SMA is at $22.80, placing the current price firmly in positive territory relative to its long-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line early in the session, aligning with the upward thrust. By the close, the histogram was shrinking, indicating waning bullish momentum. The RSI reached 74, entering overbought territory, while showing bearish divergence with a higher high in price but a lower high in RSI, hinting at potential downward correction. These divergences suggest caution as the market may pause or retrace before continuing higher.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the upward move, with the upper band reaching $24.43 and the lower band settling near $23.70. Price closed near the upper band, which is generally a bearish sign unless accompanied by strong volume and follow-through. The volatility spike suggests that traders may soon see a contraction phase or a consolidation period after this aggressive move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 84,455 USDT at 09:30 ET during the sharp rally, confirming the breakout. However, subsequent volume during the pullback remained relatively high but failed to support further upside, indicating a potential loss of conviction. Turnover aligned with volume patterns, with notable spikes coinciding with key levels, especially around $24.30 and $24.15. The divergence between price and volume suggests a possible correction or a test of the support zone near $24.00.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $22.87 to $24.43, the 61.8% level is now at $23.98 and the 38.2% level at $24.26. The price closed near the 23.8% retrace level at $24.20, which is a key area of interest for potential consolidation or reversal. On the daily chart, a similar retracement from a recent swing high may place the next level of interest at $23.95, aligning with recent support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position at the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($23.98) if LINKUSDT fails to close above the 38.2% level ($24.26) within the next 48 hours. Stop-loss would be placed above $24.26 to protect against a continuation of the bullish trend. A take-profit target is set at $23.80, aligning with a prior support-turned-resistance zone. This strategy leverages the bearish divergence in RSI and the rejection at key resistance levels observed in the current candlestick action. The strategy’s validity will depend on volume confirming the reversal and on key moving averages confirming a bearish crossover on the 15-minute timeframe.