Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT)

Summary
• Price surged from 15.88 to 16.67, forming bullish momentum with a close at 16.51.
• Volume spiked to 234,976.13 at 14:45 ET, signaling increased selling pressure.
• Bollinger Band widening indicated heightened volatility before retracing lower.
• RSI approached overbought levels, but bearish follow-through emerged after 15:00 ET.
• MACD and 20SMA confirm upward bias, but 200DMA remains a key resistance.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at 15.88 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 16.67, and closed at 16.51 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading window saw total volume of 1,599,529.90 and notional turnover of 25,958,629.30. Price appears to have tested a key Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at ~16.50 before a sharp sell-off emerged in the late afternoon.

Key support levels emerged around 15.90–16.00, as seen during corrective dips, with a potential short-term resistance at the 16.55–16.60 cluster, where a bearish engulfing pattern formed at 14:00 ET. A doji at 12:00 ET signaled indecision, while a bullish engulfing at 09:45 ET confirmed a short-term reversal. The 20SMA on the 15-minute chart remains above price, reinforcing a bullish bias. The 200DMA at ~16.60 appears to act as a dynamic overhead resistance, with the price failing to hold above it.

MACD remained above the signal line early in the session, supporting the bullish trend, but crossed into negative territory after 14:15 ET, hinting at weakening momentum. RSI climbed into overbought territory (70+) during the early afternoon but failed to hold, indicating a bearish reversal may be in progress. Bollinger Bands expanded sharply in the morning, confirming rising volatility, before contracting in the late afternoon—suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Volume spiked at 14:45 ET but did not support a breakout above 16.60, indicating a divergence between price and volume.

Bollinger Band volatility contraction and RSI divergence suggest short-term caution.

Backtest Hypothesis
A recent backtest from January 2022 to November 2025 applied a simple strategy of buying at RSI > 70 and holding for 3 days. The results were unconvincing, showing a total return of –59.35% with an annualized loss of –12.5%. The high drawdown of 65.9% and negative Sharpe ratio of –0.47 indicate poor risk-adjusted performance. Traders should consider refining such strategies by adding trend filters (e.g., price above 200DMA), volatility-based entry/exit rules, or tighter stop-loss parameters to improve robustness. Given the current RSI divergence and bearish engulfing on the 1-hour chart, this market may present a better opportunity for contrarian traders with clear risk controls rather than pure momentum players.