Market Overview: Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT)

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• Price declined 3.83% from $24.84 to $24.37 over 24 hours, with key support at $24.35–$24.47.
• Volatility expanded in early ET hours, with a peak range of $24.91–$24.44.
• Turnover spiked above $2M at 02:15 ET and 11:30 ET, aligning with sharp price moves.
• RSI reached oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, with price consolidating near the lower band.

At 12:00 ET–1, Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $24.84 and traded between $24.31 and $25.02 during the 24-hour window, closing at $24.37 by 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 940,321.49 LINK, with a notional turnover of $23,579,625. The price action shows a consolidation after a bearish breakdown, with bearish momentum and key support levels forming below $24.60.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern with key support levels at $24.47 and $24.35, and resistance at $24.63. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 04:30 ET, confirming the breakdown from the prior consolidation. A doji formed at 06:30 ET near $24.76, signaling indecision and potential short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both trended downward, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA sits around $24.67, while the 20-period SMA is slightly below at $24.65. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 SMAs all suggest bearish bias, with the 50-period daily SMA near $24.85. Price is below all major moving averages, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line in early ET hours, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. However, divergence between RSI and price action during the morning hours suggests caution for a sustained recovery.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term trading strategy could involve entering a long position when RSI rebounds above 30 and price breaks above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the most recent swing low. Given the volatility and volume spikes observed, this setup may offer a high-probability entry ahead of a potential rebound. However, the bearish trend on longer timeframes may limit upside potential unless bullish momentum confirms a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early ET hours, pushing price to the lower Bollinger Band. This suggests increased bearish pressure and potential for consolidation. The recent narrowing of bands suggests a potential breakout or reversal could be imminent. Price remains near the lower band, which historically has acted as a support level in similar setups.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to $2.36M at 02:15 ET and $2.06M at 11:30 ET, confirming bearish breakdowns and a key support test. Notional turnover showed divergence during the 06:00–08:00 ET period, with price falling despite lower turnover. This suggests potential exhaustion in the bearish move and a possible bounce in the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the most recent 15-minute swing (from $25.01 to $24.31) show 38.2% at $24.69 and 61.8% at $24.59. These levels acted as temporary support/resistance during the 06:00–09:00 ET window. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the broader bearish move is near $24.45, aligning with the recent support level.

Looking ahead, Chainlink/Tether appears to be consolidating below key moving averages, with bearish momentum intact. A short-term rebound into the $24.60–$24.70 range could occur as RSI rebounds into neutral territory, but a break below $24.31 would confirm further bearish pressure. Investors should closely watch the $24.47–$24.59 range for signs of a reversal or continued breakdown.