Market Overview: Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) - 2025-11-12

Summary
• Price surged from 15.29 at 12:00 ET-1 to a high of 16.25, closing at 15.17 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility increased with a 24-hour volume of 1,153,822.71 and turnover of 17,450,765.85 USD.
• A bullish breakout attempt was followed by a sharp reversal, with RSI and MACD signaling bearish momentum.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at 15.29 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, touched an intraday high of 16.25, and closed at 15.17 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET. The pair experienced a total 24-hour volume of 1,153,822.71 and a notional turnover of 17,450,765.85 USD, indicating heightened market interest and liquidity shifts.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a strong bullish breakout above 16.00, supported by a series of higher highs and lows in the morning. However, this was met with aggressive selling pressure after 15:00 ET, resulting in a bearish reversal and a bearish engulfing pattern near the 16.00 level. A key support level appears to be forming around 15.38–15.42, which could be a short-term floor.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, reflecting the recent bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is around 15.45, the 100-period MA is at 15.30, and the 200-period MA near 15.25. Price currently sits below all three, indicating bearish alignment and potential for further consolidation or decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is moving lower, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought levels above 70 in the early hours to below 40 by the end of the session, signaling a shift in sentiment. While the RSI has not yet entered oversold territory, the divergence between price and RSI suggests exhaustion in the bearish move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the morning breakout, with price touching the upper band at 16.25. By the afternoon, volatility contracted as price moved lower, settling just above the lower band at 15.07. This contraction may precede a breakout attempt, and the current price is hovering near the lower band, hinting at a potential bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish reversal after 15:00 ET, particularly during the candle that closed at 15.80 and the following 15.73 session. This confirms the bearish move. However, the sharp drop in turnover post-16:00 ET suggests reduced conviction in the downward move. A divergence between volume and price could indicate a possible short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the recent 15.29–16.25 swing show 38.2% at 15.77 and 61.8% at 15.52. Price appears to have found resistance near the 38.2% level, with a potential test of the 61.8% level expected in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a backtest, one could consider using the 15-minute chart to detect Bullish-Engulfing patterns as entry signals, entering at the close of the signal candle. A stop-loss could be placed below the recent 15.07 low, and an exit rule could include closing the position after three trading days. This strategy would align with the observed Fibonacci levels and the bearish divergence in RSI, providing a structured approach to capitalizing on potential bounces or reversals in volatile conditions.

A candlestick chart showing the 15-minute LINKUSDT price action from 12:00 ET-1 to 12:00 ET, highlighting key support levels around 15.38–15.42, the bearish engulfing pattern near 16.00, and the Fibonacci retracements from the 15.29–16.25 swing.

A chart overlay displaying 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, along with RSI and MACD indicators. The MACD line is trending downward, and the RSI has dropped below 40, confirming bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands are shown with volatility contraction from 16:00 ET onward.