Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• Chainlink/Tether rose 5.17% over the last 24 hours, closing near its intraday high.
• Momentum indicators show a bullish bias, with RSI near neutral and MACD in positive territory.
• Volatility expanded during the late overnight session, but volume remained moderate.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 18.9–19.0, hinting at potential support.
• Price appears to consolidate within a 18.80–19.50 range, with 19.40 as the next key target.

Opening and Closing Summary

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $18.50 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $19.74 the following day. The 24-hour period saw prices reach a high of $19.84 and a low of $18.43. Total volume was 6,582,571.29, with a notional turnover of $129,146,122.50. The market exhibited strong buying pressure in the final 6 hours of the period, with a notable breakout above the 19.50 level.

Structure & Formations

Price found strong support at $18.80–18.90, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming around the $19.00 level. This pattern suggests short-term buyers have reasserted control after a bearish pullback. A potential resistance cluster formed near $19.40–19.50, coinciding with a prior intraday high. A small doji formed near $19.75, indicating indecision at the top of the consolidation range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish crossover, with prices holding above both lines. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA is at $19.00 and the 200-day MA near $18.75, suggesting the short-term trend remains bullish. Prices closed above the 50-day MA for the second consecutive session, adding to the positive bias.

MACD and RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line (a golden cross) in the early morning session and has remained positive, suggesting sustained buying momentum. The RSI is currently at 56, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish momentum, with no signs of overbought conditions. A divergence between the RSI and price action has not emerged, suggesting the current uptrend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow contract near 19.00 to a wide band near 19.50–19.75. Price closed near the upper band, signaling strong bullish conviction. The next expansion could lead to a breakout above the upper channel or a pullback into the mid-band for consolidation.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the last 4 hours of the 24-hour window, with the 15-minute candle at 15:30 ET showing the highest volume of 566,958.97. This coincided with a 19.57–19.84 move. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the strength of the price action. However, volume remains below the 14-day average, suggesting the move may not yet be fully confirmed as a breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels from the swing low at $18.43 to the swing high at $19.84 are as follows: 38.2% at $19.18, 61.8% at $19.61, and the full retracement at $19.84. Price has tested and held above the 61.8% level, suggesting that the $19.61–19.84 zone is critical for continued bullish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

While the MACD golden cross appears to be a recurring signal in LINKUSDT, historical backtests from January 2022 to October 2025 show limited reliability. Only 53 such signals occurred, with the average excess return remaining statistically insignificant over a 30-day window. The win rate of ~49% suggests the signal is close to random in isolation. However, the cumulative return becomes mildly positive after 24 days, peaking at ~+3.4% by day 30. This weak but consistent edge may justify further refinement. If using the MACD golden cross as part of a strategy, consider:
- Adding multi-timeframe confirmation (e.g., daily trend direction).
- Using volume or on-chain data as a filter.
- Implementing strict risk management, especially in the first 14 days where drawdowns are common.