Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-10-12

• Price action showed a sharp selloff followed by a recovery rally, forming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Key support held at $17.3, with a potential resistance forming near $18.5.
• MACD and RSI indicated fading bearish momentum, while volume spiked during the recovery.
• Bollinger Bands expanded with increased volatility, and Fibonacci levels highlighted potential turning points.
• Divergence between price and turnover signaled mixed investor sentiment but confirmed the rally’s strength.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $17.89 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at $17.4 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $18.78 and a low of $16.6. Total volume was 3,966,207.31, and turnover reached $67,884,817.45 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a significant bearish drop starting at 19:30 ET (2025-10-11), where price fell from $17.60 to $16.84, marking a key low. A strong bearish engulfing pattern followed, reinforcing the move lower. However, a notable reversal began around 21:30 ET with a bullish engulfing pattern as the price surged from $16.72 to $17.06. As the day progressed, the price moved into a consolidation phase, with a final bullish harami formation in the morning session. These patterns suggest a potential shift in momentum from bearish to bullish, though with mixed signals from volume and turnover.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages diverged during the early hours of the morning, with the 20-period MA above the 50-period MA, signaling a short-term bullish bias. However, these lines crossed near the end of the session, suggesting a possible consolidation or pause in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, confirming a short-term bearish bias but not a major shift in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover early in the morning, aligning with the price’s drop to $16.84. However, the line turned positive and crossed above the signal line after 5:00 AM, indicating a bullish reversal. The histogram also expanded on the morning rally, signaling strong buying pressure. RSI confirmed this, dropping below 30 during the low at $16.84 and rising into overbought territory ($70) during the afternoon rally, suggesting a potential correction ahead if the momentum does not hold.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the afternoon and evening session as the price moved from $16.6 to $18.78. Price consistently traded near the upper band during the recovery phase, indicating strong bullish momentum and potential resistance. In the final hours, price moved back into the middle band, suggesting a possible consolidation or pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish phase, particularly at the 19:30 ET 15-minute candle, where the price dropped from $17.60 to $16.84 and turnover increased sharply. However, during the recovery phase, volume remained relatively stable and did not show a significant surge. Notional turnover diverged with price during this period, with turnover rising while price declined, indicating bearish sentiment, but then aligning with the recovery as both rose in tandem. This suggests some short-covering and buying interest during the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing from $16.6 to $18.78, the 38.2% level ($17.83) and 61.8% level ($17.37) proved to be important psychological levels. Price bounced off the 38.2% level twice and tested the 61.8% level during consolidation. These levels may continue to act as support and resistance in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bullish reversal patterns and the RSI entering overbought territory during the recovery phase, a possible backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions upon a confirmation of the bullish engulfing pattern and RSI rebounding from oversold levels. A stop-loss could be placed just below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $17.37 to protect against a potential breakdown. Trailing stops could be used as the price moves higher, with targets at $18.0 and $18.5, aligning with the 50-period MA and upper Bollinger Band. This approach would aim to capture momentum while managing risk during a volatile but structurally sound price environment.