Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) – 2025-10-09

• Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) declined ~6.5% over the last 24 hours, closing near 21.72 after a sharp sell-off after 08:30 ET.
• Key support levels at 21.50 and 21.38 are now in focus, while resistance remains at 21.80–21.85.
• High-volume bearish divergences and bearish momentum in RSI suggest further downside risk in the near term.
• Volatility expanded during the sell-off but has since contracted, indicating a potential consolidation phase.
• 21.65–21.72 has become a critical range, with a potential bounce or breakdown likely in the next 24 hours.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at 22.00, reached a high of 22.67, a low of 21.62, and closed at 21.72. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,234,504.23, with a notional turnover of $26,448,436.89. Price action suggests a bearish tilt, with a major breakdown below key intraday support levels and bearish momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price formation showed a strong bearish bias after 08:30 ET when a large-bodied red candle opened at 21.81 and closed at 21.65—indicating a rejection of higher levels and accumulation by sellers. This was followed by a series of smaller red bars with diminishing highs and lows, confirming a trend reversal. Notable support at 21.62–21.65 held temporarily but showed signs of weakening as volume remained elevated. No significant bullish reversal patterns emerged, though a bullish engulfing pattern formed near 21.65–21.72 in the last two hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce is possible.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA dipped below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish crossover. This confirmed the shift to a short-term downtrend. The 50-period MA on the daily chart crossed below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. While the 100-period MA on the daily chart remains above 21.80, it appears increasingly vulnerable to being broken through.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and diverged from price after 08:30 ET, with bearish momentum evident in the histogram’s expansion. RSI fell sharply from overbought levels (70+) to oversold territory (<30), signaling exhaustion in the bears. While this might hint at short-term stabilization, the bearish divergence between RSI and price remains a cautionary sign.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the sell-off phase, pushing price to the lower band at 21.62–21.65 before consolidating around 21.70. The contraction in the Bollinger Bands over the last two hours suggests reduced uncertainty or potential accumulation by buyers. However, with the 20-period standard deviation still elevated, the market remains in a transitional phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 105,000 units at 08:30 ET as price collapsed from 21.81 to 21.65, followed by a large turnover spike of $2.2 million. Despite the sharp decline, subsequent candles showed relatively low volume, indicating waning bearish conviction. The divergence between bearish price action and declining volume may hint at a near-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the last 15-minute swing (21.81 to 21.65), the 61.8% level aligns with 21.72, where price found support. On the daily timeframe, the 50% retracement level is at 21.95, which is now a resistance. A move above 21.85 could target the 38.2% retracement at 21.95, but a breakdown below 21.62 would suggest a test of the 21.50–21.38 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be constructed using a combination of bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, a bearish crossover in the 20/50 MA on the 15-minute chart, and a breakdown of the lower Bollinger Band. A short entry could be triggered after a close below the 21.65 support with a stop above the 21.72 resistance. Targets would align with key Fibonacci levels below. Given the current price action and technical indicators, this setup may offer a favorable risk-reward profile for short-term bearish bias.