Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-10-06

• Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $22.41 and closed at $22.82, forming a bearish reversal after a 24-hour high of $22.98.
• Price tested key support near $21.93 and bounced, showing resilience amid volatile swings below and above the 20-period SMA.
• Volume spiked during the early hours of 10/06, confirming a bearish break below $22.00 before a late recovery.
• RSI hit oversold levels (~30) before a rebound, indicating short-term exhaustion in the downward move.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion suggests increased volatility ahead, with price currently near the upper band.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $22.41 on October 5, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $22.98, a low of $21.47, and closed at $22.82 on October 6 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 15.65 million, with notional turnover of $349,424.51. The pair displayed a volatile recovery after a deep early-morning selloff, with key resistance forming near $22.93 and support at $21.93.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick structure showed a bearish morning star pattern at the beginning of the session, followed by a sharp decline into a deep doji near the 21.93 level, indicating indecision. Price then formed a bullish engulfing pattern after the 0200 ET mark, which initiated a recovery into late afternoon. A key resistance appears at $22.98, coinciding with the 24-hour high, while $21.93 acts as a firm support level. The price appears to have rejected further downside near this level, suggesting short-term stabilizing behavior.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a bearish crossover in the early hours, reinforcing the downtrend. However, the 20-period line began to cross above the 50-period line near the 0600 ET mark, signaling a short-term bullish crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period SMA sits at $22.15, the 100-period at $21.98, and the 200-period at $21.89. The price is currently above all three, suggesting a potential long-term base may be forming.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line just before the deep selloff, confirming bearish momentum. However, a subsequent bullish crossover occurred during the afternoon recovery. The histogram showed a narrow contraction during the consolidation phase, followed by a broadening into the late afternoon. RSI dropped to 29, an oversold reading, and then rose to 56, indicating a potential reversal in short-term momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted sharply during the early part of the session as price moved between $21.93 and $22.15. The bands then expanded as the selloff intensified, reaching a low of $21.47 before a recovery. Price closed near the upper Bollinger Band, which is currently at $22.88, suggesting that upward momentum may persist in the near term. The recent expansion indicates increased uncertainty and the potential for further range-bound or breakout trading.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning hours as the price broke below key support at $22.00, reaching a peak of 1,253,476.53 in the 0100 ET candle. This large-volume move confirmed the bearish breakdown. However, volume dropped during the consolidation phase and then increased again during the afternoon recovery. Notional turnover mirrored volume closely, with the largest spike occurring at the 0100 ET candle. The divergence between price and volume during the consolidation period suggests a potential short-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 24-hour swing from $22.98 to $21.47, key levels include 23.6% at $22.59, 38.2% at $22.38, 50.0% at $22.22, 61.8% at $22.08, and 78.6% at $21.88. Price found temporary support at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels before the afternoon recovery. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels suggest a possible retest of the 50% retracement at $22.22 in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described in the input involves a dual-moving average crossover system on the 15-minute chart—20-period and 50-period SMAs—combined with RSI filtering. Specifically, a long signal is triggered when the 20-period SMA crosses above the 50-period SMA and RSI is below 30. A short signal occurs when the 20-period SMA crosses below the 50-period SMA and RSI is above 70. Given the recent bullish crossover and RSI recovery in the afternoon, this strategy would have generated a long signal during the 0600–0800 ET timeframe. A similar signal appears to be forming again in the closing hours, with RSI moving above 50 and the 20-period SMA trending upward. This approach could serve as a useful confirmation tool for traders looking to capture short-term directional bias.