Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) – 2025-10-05

• Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) rose 5.12% in the past 24 hours, breaking above key resistance near $22.00.
• Momentum accelerated post-ET hours, with a 1.5% hourly surge pushing price to $22.76.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening to capture most of the intraday range.
• On-balance volume surged during the upward leg, confirming strength in the rally.
• RSI entered overbought territory near 70, suggesting a potential pullback unless bullish momentum continues.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $21.79 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and surged to $22.91 before closing at $22.75 at 12:00 ET on October 5, 2025. The pair traded within a $21.79–$22.91 range, with total volume reaching ~4.3M and turnover ~$95.6M across the 24-hour window. Price formed a bullish continuation pattern with strong volume support.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a clear ascending triangle pattern with support at $21.88–$21.93 and resistance at $22.05–$22.07, which was decisively broken. After 02:45 ET, a powerful bullish engulfing candle at $22.31–$22.54 marked a key breakout. Later, a large bullish pinbar at $22.54–$22.76 suggested continued buying pressure. A minor bearish divergence appeared after the 16:00 ET candle, where price peaked at $22.76 but volume declined, raising some caution.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the early morning, confirming a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat near $21.65, suggesting the recent rally has moved the pair into overbought territory relative to longer-term trends. The 100- and 200-period MAs remain below the current price, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend unless support at $22.00 reasserts itself.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive after 02:45 ET and held above the signal line, indicating sustained bullish momentum. RSI climbed to 70, signaling overbought conditions, though no significant bearish divergence was observed between price and RSI. The oscillator may test key support at 55–58 in the near term. A close below 55 could signal a temporary consolidation phase, whereas a sustained move above 70 would reinforce the bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after the breakout, with Bollinger Bands widening from ~$0.15 to ~$0.45. Price hovered above the upper band from 03:00 to 09:00 ET, confirming strong upside momentum. A contraction in band width is expected as the market digests the recent gains, which could serve as a potential entry point for traders seeking a pullback into key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:15–05:00 ET window, with a single candle at 03:15 ET posting ~$136M in turnover, coinciding with the breakout move. Turnover and volume were aligned with the upward price action, reinforcing the credibility of the breakout. A divergence in volume is observed in the 16:00 ET candle where price hit a new high but volume dropped, indicating possible exhaustion or short-term profit-taking.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $21.88 to $22.91, key levels are located at 23.6% ($22.41), 38.2% ($22.53), 61.8% ($22.76), and 78.6% ($22.88). Price held above the 61.8% level during the day and tested the 78.6% level twice before consolidating. A break below $22.53 could trigger a retest of the $22.00 area.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the strong volume confirmation and sustained momentum observed in the 15-minute chart, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout above the ascending triangle (confirmed at 02:45 ET) with a stop just below the $22.05 support level. A fixed-risk approach with a 1:2 reward-to-risk ratio could target a take-profit at $22.65–$22.75. Given the alignment of MACD and RSI with volume, this strategy would aim to capture the continuation leg of the move. The Bollinger Band expansion and Fibonacci levels at $22.76 provide natural exit points for profit-taking or trailing stops.