Market Overview: Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-10-01

• Price surged 9.4% in 24 hours, closing near intraday high at $22.24
• Bullish momentum confirmed by RSI above 50 and positive MACD divergence
• Volatility expanded as price broke above key resistance levels
• Volume and turnover aligned with bullish breakouts, no major divergence
• 15-min chart shows bullish engulfing patterns near key Fibonacci levels

Opening Summary

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $21.02 on 2025-09-30 16:00 ET and closed at $22.24 by 2025-10-01 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $22.44 and a low of $20.99. Total traded volume was 1,584,332.55 LINK, and notional turnover amounted to $34,237,283.73 over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-min chart revealed a series of bullish signals, notably a strong bullish engulfing pattern as the price moved from $21.32 to $21.49 at the end of the previous day. A key support level appears to have been established around $21.30, with price bouncing off this level multiple times. Resistance has broken decisively at $22.07, with the price forming a strong ascending channel and reaching a high of $22.44, suggesting continued bullish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price is currently above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is trending upwards and sits near $22.15, with the 200-period MA at $21.65, suggesting a healthy uptrend. Price remains above all key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish stance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive and is rising, crossing above the signal line with a strong bullish divergence. RSI remains in overbought territory at 62–67 but has not yet signaled exhaustion, suggesting continued momentum. No bearish divergences in RSI yet, indicating sustained buying pressure and strong near-term sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Price has expanded well above the upper Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, reaching 2.5 standard deviations above the 20-period SMA. Volatility increased as the bands widened following the breakout from $22.07. Price has not retracted significantly and remains above the 20-period moving average, suggesting a continuation of the breakout pattern.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the breakout from $22.07 to $22.44, with the largest single 15-min bar contributing $2.9M in turnover and 136,883.55 LINK in volume. No bearish price-volume divergence was observed; instead, both volume and turnover confirmed the bullish breakouts, reinforcing the strength of the move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price extended beyond the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the low at $21.30 to the high at $22.07. The key 78.6% retracement level is now acting as potential support at $22.23. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a larger bearish swing sits at $21.95, already below the current price, suggesting a strong continuation of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish momentum and the confirmed breakout from key resistance levels, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry near the 61.8% Fibonacci level with a stop-loss just below the most recent swing low. A take-profit target could be set near the 78.6% extension level or based on projected volatility from the Bollinger Bands. This approach aligns with the observed price-volume confirmation and positive MACD divergence. The use of a 20-period SMA as a dynamic support level can further refine entry and exit timing for a systematic approach.