Market Overview for Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) on 2025-09-17

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• Price declined 4.5% over 24 hours, breaking below key psychological support level at 23.50.
• Volume spiked during late-night sell-off, with over 100k contracts traded below 23.20.
• RSI oversold near 30, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains intact.
• Bollinger Bands constricted before late-ET expansion, signaling volatility breakout to the downside.
• Candlestick patterns suggest exhaustion of bearish pressure if a bullish reversal forms above 23.25.

Chainlink/Tether (LINKUSDT) opened at $23.48 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16 and traded as high as $23.75 before closing at $22.93 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 2,131,996.02 and a notional turnover of approximately $49,244,168.78, with bearish dominance evident across most of the session.

1. Structure & Formations

LINKUSDT has shown a clear bearish trend over the last 24 hours, with price forming multiple bearish reversal patterns including a Bearish Engulfing pattern at 23.5–23.53 and a Shooting Star at 23.66. The 15-minute chart highlights a Falling Wedge formation that ultimately broke downward at 23.25, signaling further downside potential. Key support levels to watch are 23.15 and 23.00, with 22.90 emerging as a critical psychological threshold.

2. Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price has stayed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, with a clear bearish crossover observed at 23.55. On the daily chart, the 50-DMA has crossed below the 200-DMA, confirming a bearish tilt in the medium-term trend. The price is currently below the 50-EMA at 23.27, reinforcing bearish momentum.

3. MACD & RSI

The MACD has been bearish throughout the session, with a large negative histogram developing after 04:00 ET as the downtrend accelerated. RSI has dropped to 29, indicating oversold territory and possible near-term buying interest. However, RSI remains within a bearish consolidation range, with no clear reversal yet.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could use RSI below 30 as a trigger for a bullish trade, with a stop loss below the most recent swing low and a target at the nearest Fibonacci 38.2% level. Given the current bearish MACD and volume divergence below 23.10, this strategy may offer a favorable risk-reward if price bounces off 23.10 and closes above 23.30 within 24 hours. This approach aligns well with the observed Fibonacci retracements and Bollinger Band contraction/expansion dynamics.

4. Bollinger Bands

Volatility compressed significantly between 09:00 and 11:00 ET as price moved within a narrow band before expanding dramatically with the breakout below 23.20. Price is currently near the lower Bollinger Band, with a closing near the 22.93 low suggesting continuation of the bearish phase. A break above the upper band at 23.55 would be a necessary condition for any reversal.

5. Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the late-ET and early-night ET session, peaking at 105,963.94 at 11:00 ET as price moved below 23.10. This large volume print suggests significant bearish conviction. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, with a clear divergence between price and volume seen after 02:00 ET, indicating market exhaustion.

6. Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 23.45–23.75 swing, the 38.2% retracement is at 23.55, the 61.8% at 23.38, and the 78.6% at 23.25. Price has already broken the 61.8% level, suggesting further movement toward the 23.10–22.90 range is likely. A bounce off the 38.2% level may indicate a shallow pullback.

7. Forward Outlook & Risk Caveat

With key support levels now under pressure and RSI showing oversold conditions, a short-term bounce is possible. However, bearish momentum remains strong, with price continuing to trade below all major moving averages and with volume confirming the move. If the price closes below 22.90 in the next 24 hours, the 200-DMA may become the next critical support level at 22.75. Investors should remain cautious and watch for divergence in the RSI and volume dynamics.