Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) – October 11, 2025

• CTRY/TRY dropped over 50% in 24 hours, with heavy selling pressure from 21:00 to 22:00 ET.
• Key support tested around 4.5 and 4.31 levels, with mixed follow-through.
• Volatility surged during flash selloffs, indicating high risk of further drawdowns.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold territory, but divergence suggests caution.
• Large volume spikes correlate with sharp declines, hinting at market uncertainty.

Market Snapshot

CTRY opened at 6.13 at 12:00 ET−1, reaching a high of 6.176 before collapsing to a low of 1.8 by 21:30 ET. It closed at 4.782 at 12:00 ET, down 21.9%. Total 24-hour volume was 9,238,155.2, and total turnover was 54,554,628.3 in TRY. The sharp selloff, particularly between 21:00 and 22:30 ET, marked one of the most volatile periods in the past day.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed multiple strong bearish formations, including engulfing candles and a bearish abandonment gap after the 21:30 ET candle, which gapped down to 3.441. A large bearish bar with wick at 21:15 ET (close at 4.745) also signaled capitulation. A key support level was tested at 4.5, with a failed rebound observed. A bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 02:30 ET (4.594–4.665), but it lacked sufficient follow-through to confirm a reversal.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart show the price has remained below both, reinforcing the bearish momentum. MACD turned negative around 21:30 ET and has since remained in the red, with a strong bearish divergence forming after the 02:30 ET rebound. RSI reached an oversold level below 20 in the early morning hours, but the failure to break above 50 suggests weak conviction in the short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff from 21:00 to 22:00 ET, as price fell rapidly within the lower band. After a brief consolidation, volatility decreased in the early morning, with price hovering near the lower band once more. This suggests a possible continuation of the bearish trend unless a clear reversal occurs above the upper band.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff periods, particularly between 21:00 and 22:30 ET, with the 21:30 ET candle alone recording a turnover of 357,107.5 TRY. While the morning rebound from 02:30 to 04:00 ET saw volume increase, it remained below the levels seen during the sharp sell-offs, indicating a lack of institutional follow-through. A divergence in volume and price action hints at potential exhaustion or a test of stop-loss levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major high (6.176) and low (1.8), the price currently sits near the 61.8% retracement level at around 4.66. This level appears to have acted as a short-term support, but the lack of follow-through suggests it may now function as resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 50% retracement of the morning rally from 4.5 to 4.87 is at 4.685, which may see renewed attention in the coming hours.

Forward Outlook and Risk

With price near key Fibonacci levels and oversold RSI, a short-term bounce into 4.80 or higher is possible. However, the lack of volume on the rebound and bearish divergence in momentum indicators suggest a higher probability of continued consolidation or a test of 4.3–4.4 support. Investors should monitor volume closely and watch for a break above 4.87 to confirm a reversal. Risk remains skewed to the downside for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI, alongside a failure to hold above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, a sell signal could be triggered on a close below 4.5. A stop-loss above the 20-period MA or 4.70 could offer downside protection. A target of 4.30–4.40 aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and recent support levels. This strategy could be backtested using a mean-reversion framework that looks for divergences in momentum and volume confirmation. Given the volatility of the past 24 hours, risk management remains crucial, with position sizing tied to daily volume spikes as a proxy for market uncertainty.