Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-22

• Price opened at $4.804 and closed at $4.667 after a sharp drop below key support.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a 15-minute range exceeding 9.6%.
• RSI and MACD indicate bearish momentum, with oversold territory approached by late night.
• Volume surged during the selloff, confirming bearish bias but showing signs of exhaustion.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 4.66–4.68 may offer near-term support for a potential bounce.

The Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) pair opened at $4.804 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $4.667 by 12:00 ET on October 22. The pair hit a high of $4.853 and a low of $4.415 during the 24-hour period, reflecting substantial volatility. Total volume amounted to 3,082,367.4 units, while notional turnover reached approximately $14,011,259. The pair formed a strong bearish structure, with several long bearish shadows and a confirmed breakdown below a key support level.

Structure analysis reveals a bearish continuation pattern, particularly after the 19:00 ET breakdown of the 4.70–4.73 range. A large bearish candle with a long lower wick at 22:30 ET confirmed the bearish bias. The 20-period 15-minute moving average (4.483) crossed below the 50-period (4.503), reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily chart indicators show the 50-period at 4.665 and 200-period at 4.738, suggesting a test of the 4.65–4.68 zone for potential support.

Momentum indicators confirm bearish pressure. The 15-minute MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line after 20:30 ET. RSI dropped below 30 during the overnight session, signaling potential oversold conditions. On the daily chart, RSI remains in bearish territory, with no signs of immediate reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the selloff, with price testing the lower band multiple times after 20:00 ET. This indicates a high-volatility phase, and a contraction may signal a potential rebound.

Fibonacci retracements from the 4.415 low to the 4.853 high show key levels at 4.66–4.68 (61.8%) and 4.56–4.58 (50%). Price is currently near the 61.8% level, which may act as a temporary floor for near-term buyers. Volume analysis shows a significant increase during the 20:00–22:30 ET selloff, confirming the bearish move. However, volume has since declined, which may indicate a lack of follow-through or exhaustion in the bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed price action, particularly the drop into oversold RSI territory, suggests a potential long-biased strategy could be triggered if price bounces from the 4.66–4.68 level. A hypothetical backtest using RSI-based entry rules might involve long entry at 4.66 (on a close above), with a stop-loss at 4.60 and a target at 4.73 (61.8% retest). However, the RSI data for the specified ticker symbol could not be retrieved due to data availability issues. To proceed with the backtest, confirmation or substitution of the correct symbol is required to ensure accurate historical RSI inputs.