Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• CTRY surged 12.6% in 24 hours, closing near a 15-minute high at 9.88 after a strong morning rally.
• Momentum accelerated mid-session with a bullish break above prior resistance, confirmed by rising volume.
• RSI moved into overbought territory, while Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened volatility.
• A strong divergence between volume and price occurred post-15:30, signaling caution ahead.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at 9.22 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 10.189, and closed at 9.88 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,250,645.1, while notional turnover was 11,998,658.6 Turkish Lira. The price action reflects a sharp, sustained upward move driven by a key breakout in early trading hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a clear bullish structure with a series of higher highs and higher lows forming after 19:30 ET on the 12th. A strong engulfing pattern formed at 19:30–19:45 ET as CTRY surged from 9.45 to 9.492, confirming a shift in sentiment. Another notable formation came at 09:45–10:00 ET, with a large bullish continuation pattern forming as price tested and held above the 9.69–9.73 range. The most recent session ended with a tall bullish candle, suggesting strong conviction in the current trend.

A key support level formed near 9.41–9.43, while resistance was tested and then broken at 9.71, 9.85, and 9.95. A strong rejection at 9.75–9.77 was followed by a rapid rebound, suggesting accumulation in that range. The overall structure indicates a breakout from a multi-hour consolidation phase into a strong upward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in the early morning, confirming a shift to bullish momentum. The 50-period line acted as dynamic support at 9.56–9.62 before being decisively surpassed. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has been rising from 9.45–9.52 and was decisively outperformed in the current session. The 100- and 200-period lines, currently at 9.37 and 9.24, respectively, are well below current price, indicating a strong uptrend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive in the early morning hours and maintained bullish momentum, with a large positive histogram forming after 09:30–10:00 ET. The signal line crossed up through the MACD line, reinforcing the bullish case. RSI surged past 65 early in the session and entered overbought territory (above 70) around 11:00 ET. By the end of the session, it had cooled slightly to 68, suggesting exhaustion of the immediate upward thrust.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy suggests a mean-reversion approach based on 15-minute RSI divergence and Bollinger Band contraction. If applied to today’s data, the strategy would have flagged a potential short signal at the 15:30–15:45 ET candle, as RSI declined while price remained higher (a bearish divergence). This would have aligned with a Bollinger Band contraction at the same time, suggesting a likely reversal. The strategy may have also triggered a long signal at 09:45 ET when RSI bottomed at 48 and price broke out from a tight range, aligning with a widening band and rising momentum. The effectiveness of this strategy would depend on consistent application and filtering out false signals, which occurred after 16:00 ET when volume diverged from price.