Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) - 24-Hour Analysis (2025-09-22)

• CTRY opened at 10.77 and surged to 11.078 before plunging to 8.739, closing at 8.799 in a volatile 24-hour period.
• Momentum reversed sharply after 18:30 ET with a bearish divergence between price and RSI.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; volume surged during the selloff to 140,000+ per candle.
• A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~9.10 is showing early resistance.
• The final 15 minutes of the period saw a sharp drop with high volume but no immediate reversal patterns.

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at $10.77 on September 21 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $11.078 before closing at $8.799 at 12:00 ET on September 22. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to 1,679,483.3 units, with notional turnover reaching $18.6 million.

The 15-minute chart reveals a sharp bullish impulse between 18:15 and 18:30 ET, with a massive volume spike of 147,735.7 and a high of 11.078, followed by a bearish reversal marked by divergences in RSI and a breakdown below key moving averages. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top, signaling exhaustion in the up-move. By early morning ET, the price had retreated sharply, forming a deep bearish trend with multiple lower highs and lower closes.

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly in the 06:15–06:30 ET (12:15–12:30 local) and 09:30–10:00 ET candles, indicating a strong distribution phase. Candles during these periods showed bearish continuation patterns and widened Bollinger Bands, confirming heightened volatility. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price in the final hours, confirming the bearish momentum.

RSI bottomed near oversold levels in the final 24 hours but failed to generate a bullish reversal, while MACD lines crossed into negative territory with expanding bearish histograms. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 11.078 high to the 8.739 low sits near 9.10, which could act as a potential support/resistance pivot. A breakdown below 8.837—identified as a key 38.2% retracement level—would suggest further downside toward 8.70.

Backtest Hypothesis
A hypothetical short-term strategy could exploit the bearish exhaustion in CTRY by entering short positions on a confirmed break below the 8.837 level, with a stop-loss placed just above the 9.014 swing high. The target would aim for the 8.739 level, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:0.75. This approach aligns with the observed bearish momentum and volume confirmation during the selloff.