Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) on 2025-10-29

Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) opened at $5.038 on 2025-10-28 12:00 ET and traded within a range of $4.901 to $5.121 over the next 24 hours, closing at $4.918 by 2025-10-29 04:15 ET. The 24-hour trading volume amounted to 942,373.5 units, with a notional turnover of $4.56M.

• Price declined from a morning high of $5.121 to a late-night low of $4.901, indicating bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price range widening to $0.22 over the 24-hour period.
• Key support was tested at $4.901–$4.908, with consolidation observed after 02:45 ET.
• A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $5.127–$5.072 in the afternoon, followed by a strong reversal to the downside.
• Volume surged during the early evening session, reaching a peak of $4.5M in turnover, but declined sharply after 02:30 ET.

Structure & Formations

CTRY formed a bearish engulfing pattern during the 18:30–19:15 ET timeframe, as price opened at $5.127 and closed at $4.967, reflecting strong bearish pressure. A later bearish reversal at $5.078–$4.96 confirmed the shift in sentiment. Key support levels at $4.901–$4.908 and $4.883 appear to be critical, with consolidation forming above $4.908. No strong bullish candlestick patterns emerged during the session, suggesting a continuation of the current bearish bias is likely.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, CTRY’s price closed below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs in the early morning, reinforcing a bearish trend. A further breakdown below $4.908 could trigger a test of the $4.883 support level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained bearish for most of the session, with a strong negative divergence observed between price and momentum after 19:30 ET. The RSI dropped below 30 at 19:30, confirming oversold conditions. However, the RSI rebounded slightly without a strong price recovery, suggesting a weak bounce is possible but a deeper pullback remains likely.

Bollinger Bands

CTRY’s price experienced a significant expansion of Bollinger Bands during the early evening, with a low volatility contraction observed in the early morning. Price closed near the lower band at $4.901–$4.918, indicating a possible short-term bounce could be imminent. However, without a sustained break above the middle band, the trend remains bearish.

Volume & Turnover

The most active trading occurred between 18:30 and 20:15 ET, with volumes exceeding 170,000 units and notional turnover reaching $4.5M. Despite the large volume, price moved lower sharply during the 19:30–19:45 ET timeframe, indicating bearish conviction. After 02:30 ET, both volume and turnover dropped to near-zero levels, with no significant price movement observed.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the $5.038–$4.901 swing, key levels at 61.8% (~$4.94) and 38.2% (~$4.97) were touched during the session. The 61.8% level held briefly before a further decline, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of these levels is likely in the next 24 hours, especially if the current consolidation near $4.908 fails to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the observed bearish sentiment, a backtest strategy could be constructed using the RSI(14) and candlestick signals. By detecting RSI(14) levels below 30 (oversold conditions) and bearish engulfing patterns, the strategy would issue sell signals. These signals could be combined with price action to build open/close lists for testing. Once data availability is confirmed—either for CTRY or a proxy—this approach could be used to evaluate performance over a longer period and refine risk-adjusted returns.