Market Overview for Chainbase/Turkish Lira (CTRY) as of 2025-09-18

• CTRY surged over 10% in 24 hours, forming bullish momentum with high volume near highs.
• A 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 10.75, suggesting short-term strength.
• RSI reached overbought territory, but volume confirmed price action, reducing divergence risk.
• Volatility expanded sharply after 20:00 ET as Bollinger Bands widened with large 15-minute candles.
• Fibonacci levels at 10.94 and 11.06 appear critical for near-term continuation or correction.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-17, CTRY opened at 10.107 and closed at 10.814 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The price hit a high of 11.26 and a low of 10.017 over the 24-hour period. Total volume was approximately 5,217,602.2, and notional turnover reached $54.9 million.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a sharp bullish reversal beginning around 19:15 ET as CTRY formed a bullish engulfing pattern near 10.75, followed by a strong upward thrust to 11.26 by 14:45 ET. This breakout appears supported by a descending triangle and a key 50-period EMA crossover.

A bearish divergence was observed near 11.10, where the RSI declined while price continued higher, suggesting potential exhaustion. However, this was followed by a strong bullish continuation, implying that the rally remains intact for now. A key support level appears at 10.81 (10.814 close), with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 11.01 and a 61.8% level at 10.89.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA crossed above the 50-period EMA at 19:30 ET, signaling a bullish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period EMA is also above the 200-period EMA, indicating a positive longer-term trend.

The MACD crossed into positive territory after 20:00 ET, with a strong histogram expansion, confirming increased bullish momentum. RSI reached 72 at the peak, entering overbought territory, but volume increased alongside the price, reducing the risk of a false breakout.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 20:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility. Price closed at the upper band by 14:45 ET, suggesting a strong bullish impulse.

Volume & Turnover Divergence

Volume spiked multiple times during the day, notably at 10:30 ET, 12:15 ET, and 14:45 ET, confirming price action. Notional turnover reached a peak of $6.5 million during the 14:45–15:00 ET interval as CTRY hit its high at 11.26.

A divergence was observed between 01:45 ET and 02:15 ET, where price declined slightly while turnover remained flat. This may suggest weak conviction in the short-term dip, but it was quickly reversed by a strong bullish candle at 03:15 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 10.017 (low at 18:15 ET) to 11.26 (high at 14:45 ET), key retracement levels are 11.01 (38.2%) and 10.89 (61.8%). The close at 10.814 on the 24-hour chart suggests a potential pullback toward the 61.8% level, which could serve as a support for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy leverages the 20-period EMA crossover on the 15-minute chart, combined with RSI filtering (RSI above 50 for entries, below 30 for exits). When applied to the current 24-hour data, this approach would have generated a buy signal at 19:30 ET and a sell signal at 14:45 ET, capturing a 12.6% gain. Given the strong EMA and RSI alignment, this strategy appears well-suited for high-momentum environments like the one observed for CTRY. However, the overbought RSI near 72 suggests that a short-term pullback could trigger the exit condition, aligning with the observed Fibonacci support levels.