Market Overview for CETUSUSDT on 2025-10-03

• Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) formed a bullish breakout above 0.0815 before reversing, closing near 0.0820.
• RSI reached 58–62, signaling moderate bullish momentum, with no overbought levels observed.
• Volatility surged during the 19:15–20:30 ET window, with volume spiking past 500k.
• Price tested 0.0801–0.0803 as a key support level twice, failing to break below.
• A bearish divergence emerged in the last 6 hours between price and RSI.

The Cetus Protocol/Tether pair (CETUSUSDT) opened on 2025-10-02 at 0.0797, rose to a high of 0.0828, and closed at 0.0820 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 17.8 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.45 million.

Price action revealed a distinct bullish thrust between 19:15 and 20:00 ET, during which the pair broke above the 0.0815 level on strong volume. However, this move failed to sustain, and a bearish consolidation followed, with the RSI peaking at 62 and declining into the 54–58 range by midday. A potential bearish divergence in RSI emerged in the last six hours, raising the possibility of a near-term reversal. Support at 0.0801–0.0803 held twice, forming a key level for potential short-term buyers.

Moving averages showed 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart aligning to form a bullish bias during the morning session but later flattening as the pair approached resistance. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is currently near 0.0810, acting as both a psychological and structural level for trend continuation. A 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period MA briefly, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

The RSI hovered near 58, indicating moderate bullish momentum but no overbought conditions. MACD turned negative in the last six hours, with a bearish crossover in early October 3. Bollinger Bands widened as price surged above the 0.0815 level but subsequently narrowed again, suggesting a temporary volatility contraction. Price traded within the upper and lower bands for most of the 24-hour period, indicating balanced volatility.

Volume was highly concentrated between 19:15 and 21:00 ET, with a spike of 454,488.7 units at 19:15, followed by a sharp decline. Notional turnover aligned closely with volume, showing no significant divergence. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 02:15 ET as price closed below the prior candle’s body, hinting at potential bearish continuation. Fibonacci levels for the last 15-minute swing indicated 0.0803 as a 61.8% retracement, which has acted as a key support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy targets short-term mean reversion on 15-minute swings, entering long on a close above the 20-period MA and exiting short if the RSI dips below 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Given the recent behavior of CETUSUSDT, this strategy appears to align with the price’s tendency to consolidate after sharp moves, particularly when volume wanes. The 0.0801–0.0803 support zone could serve as a key trigger for re-entry on a break and retest, provided the 50-period MA remains above the 20-period MA. This approach could capture the expected range-bound action ahead.