Market Overview: Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) – October 4, 2025

• Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) declined 1.7% over 24 hours, trading within a tight 0.076–0.083 range.
• Key support at 0.0776–0.0781 held, with price rebounding after breaking below 0.078.
• Volume spiked at 0.0776–0.0781, confirming bearish momentum and short-term oversold RSI.
• Bollinger Band contraction signals potential volatility expansion ahead.
• No clear 15-minute engulfing or doji patterns observed; trend remains choppy.

24-Hour Summary

Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) opened at 0.0820 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0783 by the same time on October 4, with a high of 0.0832 and a low of 0.0763. The total traded volume over 24 hours was 7.82 million, and the notional turnover was approximately $665,500. The price remains in a consolidation phase, showing no strong directional bias but with bearish momentum gaining ground toward the session’s close.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a defined range between 0.0776 and 0.0832 on the 15-minute timeframe, with key support forming at 0.0776–0.0781 and resistance at 0.0810–0.0825. The candle on October 4 at 10:45 ET showed a sharp decline to 0.0779, followed by a moderate rebound. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around 0.0783 on the close of the 15-minute timeframe, signaling continued downside pressure. A doji formed near 0.0780 around 02:30 ET, indicating indecision, but it was followed by a bearish continuation.

Moving Averages and Trend Bias

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bearish, with the 20-period line below the 50-period line, suggesting a short-term downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 200-day moving averages are not available, but the 100-day appears to be slightly bearish. The price has been trading below all these averages, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD and RSI Indicators

The MACD showed a bearish crossover and a negative histogram, confirming declining momentum. The RSI moved below 30 during the 03:00–06:00 ET window, entering oversold territory, which may suggest potential support at 0.0776–0.0781 could hold or retest. However, the lack of a strong bullish divergence suggests that the bearish trend may continue for a little longer before a reversal is considered.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction between 0.0781–0.0783 on October 4, which could precede a breakout or breakdown. The price has been oscillating within the bands, with the lower band acting as a dynamic support near 0.0776–0.0781. A break below this level could lead to a test of the next support at 0.0763–0.0766, with higher volatility expected if the trend reverses.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the decline from 0.0810 to 0.0783, particularly in the 15-minute timeframe from 10:00–11:15 ET. This suggests strong bearish conviction. Turnover also spiked during the same period, aligning with the price movement. There was a noticeable divergence between price and volume at 0.0785, where a lower high occurred with declining volume, suggesting potential exhaustion of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.0810–0.0783 decline, key levels include 0.0796 (38.2%) and 0.0788 (61.8%). The price found temporary support at 0.0785, which is near the 61.8% level. A breakdown below 0.0785 would target the 0.0776 level. On the upside, a retest of 0.0796 may offer a potential entry point for short-term bullish positions.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by an RSI crossing below 30 and price forming a bearish engulfing pattern. Stop-loss is set at the nearest Fibonacci level (e.g., 0.0776–0.0766), and take-profit is placed at the 61.8% retracement level (0.0788–0.0796). This strategy aligns well with observed behavior, especially given the RSI oversold reading and bearish candlestick patterns. The Bollinger Band contraction also supports the use of this strategy by signaling a potential breakout scenario.