Market Overview for Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT): 2025-09-21

• Price declined from 0.0916 to 0.0895, forming bearish momentum and confirming bearish bias.
• Key support appears at ~0.089, with bearish breakdown confirmed in final hours.
• High turnover in early trading session suggests strong short-term bear pressure.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, indicating potential for short-term rebound.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, suggesting heightened market uncertainty.

The Cetus Protocol/Tether (CETUSUSDT) pair opened at 0.0913 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0895 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with a daily high of 0.0916 and low of 0.0882. Total 24-hour trading volume was approximately 11,265,165.9, with a notional turnover of $999,516.05. The pair remained under bearish control throughout the day, with a key breakdown occurring below the psychological 0.0900 level in early trading.

The price structure showed a bearish bias as the pair moved lower through several key levels. A breakdown below the 0.0900 level confirmed a shift in sentiment, with bearish momentum picking up in the early hours of the day. The price tested the 0.0890 level twice before closing at 0.0895, suggesting potential support in that area. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0900, reinforcing the downward momentum. A doji candle near 0.0890 at 09:30 ET hinted at potential exhaustion of the sell-off, but buyers failed to hold the level, resulting in a bearish continuation.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish alignment, with the 20-period SMA dipping below the 50-period SMA. On the daily chart, the price closed below all key MAs (50, 100, and 200), deepening the bearish bias. MACD remained in negative territory, with a bearish crossover confirmed in the early morning session. RSI moved into oversold territory during the morning hours (reaching ~25), which may suggest a short-term rebound could be on the cards, though this does not necessarily indicate a trend reversal. Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price moved lower, reflecting increased volatility and market uncertainty.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the recent 15-minute swing (from 0.0916 to 0.0895) suggest that 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels are around 0.0904 and 0.0899, respectively. These levels were tested but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level (~0.0900) coincided with a key psychological support, which was ultimately broken, signaling further downside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis
The strategy aims to capture short-term bearish momentum by entering a sell position on a confirmed breakdown of the 0.0900 level, with a stop-loss placed above 0.0904 and a target at 0.0885. This approach aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern and breakdown in the early morning hours. RSI entering oversold territory may also serve as a potential signal for a temporary bounce, though without a strong bullish confirmation, continuation of the bearish trend is more likely. The strategy could be refined by incorporating a time filter to avoid late-day noise or by adding volume confirmation for key breakdown levels.