Market Overview: Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT)

Summary

• CELOUSDT opened at $0.2433 and closed at $0.2396 with a 24-hour high of $0.2467 and low of $0.2260.
• RSI(14) dipped below 30 in the latter half of the day, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the afternoon as price dropped below a key support level.
• Volume spiked during the 16:00–17:00 ET session, coinciding with the sharp decline.
• No clear bullish reversal patterns were confirmed in the final 15-minute candles.

Market Overview: Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT)

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.2433 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.2396 at 12:00 ET, trading as high as $0.2467 and as low as $0.2260. The pair posted a total 24-hour volume of 1.29 million CELO and a turnover of $311,550, reflecting heightened bearish sentiment and increased volatility toward the end of the session.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below the prior support level at $0.2361, extending the downtrend and forming a bearish continuation pattern. A key support at $0.2345 was briefly tested before the price fell further. A 15-minute doji at $0.2395 suggested momentary indecision before the next leg of the decline. Resistance remains at $0.2433 and $0.2467.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20EMA and 50EMA, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, CELOUSDT remains below the 50DMA and 200DMA, indicating a broader downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the final hours of the session, confirming bearish momentum. RSI(14) declined sharply to 28 by 16:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, the price failed to rebound, raising questions about the strength of the bounce from this level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked sharply after 15:00 ET, pushing price to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The band width expanded significantly, signaling increased uncertainty. Price remains near the lower band, which historically may offer temporary support or trigger further bearish action.

Volume & Turnover

Trading activity remained moderate until the afternoon session, when volume surged during the sharp decline. The volume/price divergence in the 16:00–17:00 ET block suggests a bearish conviction move, with higher volume supporting the price drop. Turnover during this period accounted for nearly 30% of the total 24-hour turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the recent 15-minute swing (from $0.2467 to $0.2260) include 38.2% at $0.2391 and 61.8% at $0.2353. Price is currently near the 38.2% retracement level. A break below $0.2353 would test the 61.8% level and potentially trigger further bearish activity.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI Oversold – 1-Day Hold strategy tested on CELOUSDT (2022-01-01 → 2025-11-12) demonstrated poor performance, with a total return of -53% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.72. This aligns with the current technical conditions where RSI(14) dropped below 30, but the price did not reverse. The strategy’s failure highlights the need for additional filters such as a trend confirmation or longer holding periods to avoid capturing frequent small losses and deep drawdowns. These findings underscore the current challenges of relying solely on RSI-based entries in a persistently bearish environment.