Market Overview: Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) declined by -4.96% over the last 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• A bearish divergence appears in RSI, suggesting further downside potential.
• Volatility expanded as prices dropped to a 24-hour low of $0.2530.
• Large-volume bearish reversal patterns emerged in the overnight session.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25, Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.2693, reached a high of $0.2718, and closed at $0.2571, with a low of $0.2530. The total 24-hour volume was 2,772,722.9 and turnover amounted to $702,193.7. Price action shows a clear bearish bias, with strong selling pressure evident in the second half of the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price formation reveals a series of bearish engulfing patterns, particularly around the 20:00–02:00 ET timeframe. Key support levels were identified at $0.2571, $0.2540, and $0.2500. Resistance is now at $0.2600, where the price has struggled to retest. A notable doji formed around $0.2600–$0.2605, suggesting indecision at this level. The overnight selloff also created a strong 20–30% bearish swing, which appears to have exhausted initial short-term buyers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is bearish, sitting below the 50-period MA with the price closing below both. This indicates a strong downward bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA has crossed below the 200-period MA, confirming a bearish trend. The 100-period MA remains above the price, but the gap is closing, suggesting potential for further decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is below the signal line, with bearish divergence forming between the histogram and price, signaling potential further weakness. RSI has fallen into oversold territory, reaching 27, but a divergence exists where the price is making lower lows while RSI is forming higher lows. This may signal a potential short-term bounce, but without confirmation above key levels, a further decline remains likely.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly overnight, with the bands widening to 1.1%. Price closed near the lower band at $0.2571, which is a strong oversold signal. The narrowest contraction was earlier in the morning, suggesting a period of consolidation before the sharp decline. A retest of the lower band could trigger a bounce, but only with volume confirmation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off between 2:00–6:00 ET, with a single 15-minute candle showing 174,714.3 volume and 0.2615 high to 0.2607 close. Turnover also increased significantly in the same timeframe, indicating active shorting. The overall volume profile is bearish, and the lack of volume on the morning consolidation suggests waning buying interest. A divergence is emerging between volume and price; while volume is declining, price remains bearish.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from $0.2718 to $0.2530, key levels include 38.2% at $0.2630 and 61.8% at $0.2574. The current price is near the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot point. If it breaks below $0.2530, the next Fibonacci level is at $0.2490, suggesting potential for a further leg down if the current trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy utilizing a combination of RSI, MACD, and Fibonacci retracement levels could yield valuable insights. For example, a short signal could be generated when RSI crosses below 30 and MACD turns negative while price is near a key Fibonacci level. Stop-loss placement might occur above a recent swing high or moving average, while take-profit targets align with lower Fibonacci levels. This strategy would likely perform well during high-volatility bearish phases like the current one, though it requires confirmation from volume and price action for optimal entry timing.