Market Overview for Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) - 2025-10-09

• Price declined sharply overnight after a brief rally, closing 1.8% lower.
• Volatility increased significantly following a large-volume sell-off in the early hours.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened sharply as CELOUSDT broke below the 50-period moving average.
• Volume was 37.2% higher than the 24-hour average, but price and turnover showed divergence post-02:00 ET.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.3907 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3762 by the same time on 2025-10-09. The pair reached a high of $0.3997 and a low of $0.3617 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 190532.2, with a turnover of $61,947.29. The price displayed a bearish bias for most of the day, especially after a sharp drop in the 00:15–03:00 ET window.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a breakdown below key support at $0.3842, confirmed by a long-bodied bearish candle at 00:15 ET. A large red candle forming a bearish engulfing pattern at 03:45 ET reinforced the downward bias. A potential short-term support level is forming around $0.3695, where CELOUSDT found some buying interest after the early morning drop. A doji near $0.3765 at 07:00 ET may indicate a temporary pause in the selloff.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a bearish death cross. The daily chart shows the price below the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, with the 200-period MA acting as a long-term resistance at $0.3955. The price has been trending below all three, reinforcing the bearish sentiment and suggesting further downside potential unless a reversal occurs near $0.3695–0.3710.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained bearish throughout the session with a negative histogram and a flattening line after the 04:00 ET low. RSI has entered oversold territory at 29 by the end of the 24-hour window, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. However, the RSI divergence that occurred post-02:00 ET, with price continuing to fall while RSI bottomed, signals a possible exhaustion of selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly following the sharp price decline from $0.3997 to $0.3617. The price closed below the lower band, confirming a strong bearish move. The band expansion suggests increased volatility, which could continue if the price continues to trade below the 20-period MA. A retest of the $0.3725–0.3740 mid-band area may act as a near-term resistance if buyers step in.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 00:15–02:45 ET window as the price dropped sharply, reaching a peak of 701,493.6 during the 00:15 ET candle. However, after this initial selloff, volume gradually declined despite the price continuing to fall, indicating a divergence between volume and price. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, peaking at $1,255.74 during the 00:15 ET candle, but trailing off afterward. This divergence suggests that the initial sell-off was driven by large orders, while the subsequent decline lacked conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels based on the key swing from $0.3617 to $0.3997 show the $0.3740 (38.2%) level as a potential support area, which the price briefly tested at 05:30 ET. The 61.8% level at $0.3865 has now turned into resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 0.3710–0.3740 zone appears to be consolidating, with $0.3726 serving as a critical pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on short-term mean reversion using RSI and Bollinger Bands on the 15-minute timeframe. A signal is generated when RSI drops below 30 and the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band. A long position is entered with a stop loss placed at the recent low of the breakdown candle. The hypothesis assumes that volatility will contract after the current expansion, and that a bounce from the $0.3710–0.3725 area could offer a low-risk trade if RSI begins to stabilize and the price shows signs of consolidating above the lower band. This strategy aligns with the observed divergence between volume and price, and the RSI entering oversold territory, suggesting a possible countertrend move within the next 12–24 hours.