Market Overview for Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) – 2025-10-05

• Price surged 24h from 0.3299 to 0.4391 (up 33.1%) amid strong volume spikes in late ET.
• RSI hit overbought territory (76) during peak rally; momentum suggests possible pullback.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening post-04:00 ET.
• Large bullish engulfing pattern formed after 07:15 ET as price broke above 0.40.
• Turnover exceeded $54M in final 6h, suggesting accumulation ahead of key resistance.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at 0.3299 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, surged to 0.4391, and closed at 0.4391 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total 15-minute volume reached 184.4m CELO while notional turnover hit $75.9M, reflecting strong late-day buying pressure and a sharp reversal from prior week levels.

Structure & Formations

CELOUSDT formed multiple key bullish patterns including a large bullish engulfing at 07:15 ET, a 3-wave higher low structure from 00:30 to 02:30 ET, and a strong 15-minute pinbar rejection at 08:45 ET. Key support levels appear around 0.390 and 0.360, with recent resistance at 0.411 and 0.438. A 15-minute bearish doji emerged at 15:45 ET, indicating potential short-term uncertainty.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line crossing above the 20-period line in a bullish “golden cross.” On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is at 0.372 while the 200-period MA is at 0.345, suggesting a longer-term upward trend remains intact. Price is currently 27% above its 200-day MA.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute RSI reached 76 by 14:45 ET, entering overbought territory, suggesting near-term profit-taking could occur. MACD crossed above the signal line (bullish crossover) at 05:30 ET and remained positive for the rest of the session, confirming sustained momentum. The divergence between rising price and flat MACD in the final 2 hours suggests a potential short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply after 04:00 ET as CELOUSDT broke out of a narrow range. Price traded near the upper band for most of the session, confirming a bullish breakout. A contraction was observed pre-00:30 ET before the explosion in volume and price. Current width of the bands is at a 15-day high, aligning with the significant rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 2.76M CELO at 04:45 ET and again to 2.17M at 07:15 ET as the bullish momentum accelerated. Turnover increased in lockstep, peaking at 548k USD at 14:45 ET. Notably, price and turnover remained in sync throughout the rally, indicating strong buyer conviction and limited selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from 0.3324 to 0.4391, the 61.8% retracement level is at 0.3997, where a bearish pinbar formed at 09:45 ET. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the weekly move is at 0.393, which was tested but held during the early morning consolidation phase. The 78.6% level at 0.422 appears to be a potential short-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy, which involves entering long positions on bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by volume spikes and MACD divergence, appears well-aligned with the recent CELOUSDT action. A bullish engulfing candle at 07:15 ET coincided with a MACD crossover and a surge in volume to 1.78M CELO. A strategy targeting such patterns, with stop-loss below 0.410 and a take-profit at 0.440, would have captured 7.3% of the total rally within 6 hours, validating its potential as a short-term scalp approach.