Market Overview for Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) – 2025-09-21 12:00 ET

• Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) declined 24 hours, closing near a key support level with bearish momentum.
• Price action shows a bearish divergence in RSI and low volume at recent lows, hinting at possible rejection or consolidation.
• Volatility expanded slightly in overnight trading, with a 15-minute move from $0.304 to $0.297 triggering Fibonacci retracement levels.
• A large-volume downwave in the early hours coincided with a breakdown below a short-term ascending channel.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.3048 on 2025-09-20 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2980 by 12:00 ET the next day, reaching a high of $0.3057 and a low of $0.2960. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,564,130.0, with a notional turnover of $473,550.86. The price action formed a bearish bias with bearish divergence in RSI and a breakdown from a key 15-minute channel.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a breakdown from an ascending channel after a brief attempt to rally above $0.302. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $0.3015, and a long lower wick at $0.2972 indicated rejection at a potential support level. A doji formed at $0.3003, suggesting indecision. The $0.297–$0.299 range emerged as a critical support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA and 50-period MA crossed in a bearish "death cross" formation, confirming the downward bias. The 50-period MA (on daily chart) continued to lag behind the 200-period MA, indicating a lack of long-term bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative, with bearish divergence in the histogram from $0.303 to $0.297. RSI reached oversold territory in the early hours (below 30) but failed to trigger a rebound, signaling a lack of conviction. A bearish crossover in MACD confirmed the continued bearish tone.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded as the bands widened overnight, with price dipping near the lower band at $0.297. The 15-minute chart showed a period of contraction from $0.304–$0.305 before the breakdown, suggesting a potential reversal, which failed to materialize.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early hours during the breakdown from $0.302–$0.303, with a large-volume bar at 09:30 ET printing a $0.297 open and a close at $0.2972. However, volume declined after $0.297, indicating exhaustion. Notional turnover confirmed bearish momentum during the key downwave but failed to confirm a rebound attempt at $0.2995.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing from $0.3057 to $0.2960, the price found a temporary floor near the 61.8% level at $0.2987. A potential bounce or rejection could occur around $0.297 (38.2% retracement), which coincides with a prior support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the breakdown from the 15-minute ascending channel and a bearish engulfing pattern could have triggered a short position near $0.3015. A stop-loss above $0.304 and a take-profit at $0.296 aligns with key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band targets. The failure of RSI to reverse in oversold territory suggests that this approach could yield favorable risk-reward over the next 24–48 hours, provided volume remains active and no bullish divergence emerges.