Market Overview: Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) — 2025-09-19 12:00 ET

• Price opened at $0.3219 and closed near $0.3093, reflecting a bearish 24-hour move.
• Volatility expanded as low dipped to $0.3058 and high reached $0.3252.
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions and weakening momentum.
• Volume surged during the overnight selloff, aligning with the price decline.
• A key support zone appears to have formed near $0.3090–0.3096.

Celo/Tether (CELOUSDT) opened at $0.3219 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3093 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19, with a high of $0.3252 and a low of $0.3058. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 1,284,480.1 and turnover was approximately $406,000 (assuming average price of $0.315), indicating elevated liquidity during the sell-off.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action formed a descending broadening pattern, with a bearish bias confirmed by a key breakdown below the $0.315 psychological level. A long bearish candle appeared at $0.3115–0.3093 on the 9:45–10:00 ET session, signaling distribution. The price may find near-term support at the 0.3090–0.3096 cluster, which was tested twice, forming a potential floor ahead of the daily 200SMA. Resistance levels to watch include the 0.312–0.313 area and the 0.315–0.317 pivot zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has closed below the 20SMA and 50SMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200SMA are in descending order, with the 200SMA sitting near $0.318. The price is currently well below the long-term average, suggesting the trend could remain bearish unless a strong reversal forms.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the zero line and remains in negative territory with a bearish divergence, supporting the downward momentum. The RSI is currently at 30, indicating oversold conditions, but this may not be enough to trigger a reversal unless accompanied by a volume spike. The oscillator appears to be losing downward momentum, hinting at a potential short-term pause or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight sell-off, with price touching the lower band at $0.3058. The bands are now wide, suggesting a potential period of consolidation or a continuation move. If the price continues to trade near or below the lower band, it may signal increased bearish conviction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 09:45–10:00 ET session as the price dropped to its daily low, aligning with the sell-off and confirming the breakdown. Turnover also increased during the session, suggesting active participation and conviction. However, volume has since declined, indicating reduced short-term selling pressure. A divergence between price and volume could signal a potential reversal if it continues.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.3219–0.3058 move, the 38.2% retracement is at $0.3125 and the 61.8% at $0.3187. The price is currently near the 38.2% level and appears to be consolidating there. A break below $0.3096 may target the 50% level at $0.3136, while a rebound above $0.3125 could lead to a test of $0.315–0.317.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could use a Fibonacci-based entry at the 61.8% retracement level ($0.3187) with a stop-loss placed below the 50% level ($0.3136). A target could be placed at the 78.6% extension ($0.3253) or a break above the 0.3187–0.3252 high. This approach would align with a continuation pattern if the price can retrace with increasing volume and bullish momentum indicators like RSI and MACD. The strategy should be tested on historical swings of similar magnitude and volatility to ensure robustness.