Market Overview for Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT)

• Price declined by 1.4% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum in late-night trading.
• A notable breakdown occurred below key support at 1.502, confirming bearish bias.
• Volatility expanded midday, with a large bearish candle closing near the session low.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term bounce could emerge.
• On-balance volume confirmed price action, with no major divergence observed.

15-Minute Market Movement

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at 1.503 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 1.537, and a low of 1.440 before closing at 1.456 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total volume amounted to 9,107,006.61, and total turnover reached $13,354,220. The price formed a large bearish candle in the early morning session, followed by a consolidation phase near 1.46, with a failed attempt to reclaim 1.50.

Structure & Formations

The market tested key support levels at 1.502 and 1.470 throughout the session. A strong bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart during the overnight hours, confirming a breakdown. A doji candle appeared at 1.46, indicating indecision. The price action suggests that 1.45–1.46 may act as a short-term floor, with 1.50 as immediate resistance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are bearishly aligned below price, reinforcing downward bias. The 50-period line sits at 1.465, suggesting potential retests. The 20-period line at 1.462 is closely aligned with the current price, indicating a possible consolidation zone. RSI stands at 28, indicating oversold territory, but this does not necessarily signal a reversal—bounces may be short-lived without clear volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion in the early morning session, reflecting heightened volatility as the price broke below 1.502. Price has since remained within the lower third of the bands, suggesting bearish momentum. A contraction in the bands is not evident, and the 1.440–1.450 range appears to be a temporary floor.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown candle, with over 350,000 units traded as the price moved from 1.518 to 1.488. Turnover confirmed this move, indicating strong conviction in the downtrend. However, volume has since declined, and the recent consolidation has occurred on lower-volume bars. No major divergence between price and volume is observed, suggesting the bearish trend could persist.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.537 to 1.440, the 61.8% level sits at 1.465 and aligns with the 50-period moving average. The 38.2% level is at 1.488, which the price briefly tested during consolidation. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from a broader move could serve as a key psychological level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current setup, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on shorting TIAUSDT on a close below the 1.465 level with a stop-loss above the 1.488 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. A target of 1.440–1.435, based on the most recent support level and the volatility contraction, would be appropriate. This approach aligns with the observed bearish engulfing pattern and the confirmation from moving averages and RSI. A long entry could be considered if price closes above 1.502 with increased volume, using a tight stop just below that level.