Market Overview for Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-22

• Price dropped 14.8% from $1.707 to $1.504 over 24 hours.
• Strong bearish momentum with RSI under 30, indicating oversold conditions.
• Volatility surged with a Bollinger Band contraction followed by sharp expansion.
• High-volume selling in early ET hours, with turnover peaking around 06:15–06:30 ET.
• Key support tested at $1.50–$1.49, with bearish engulfing and bear trap patterns visible.

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at $1.702 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $1.707, and fell to a low of $1.425, closing at $1.504 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 9,988,674.46 units, with a notional turnover of $14,460,384.20. The asset displayed strong bearish bias with a prolonged selloff trend.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals multiple bearish signals, including bear trap patterns and bearish engulfing candles following early resistance levels near $1.70. A key support zone appears to be forming between $1.50 and $1.49, marked by multiple retests. Notably, a doji formed at $1.507 following a sharp decline, suggesting potential short-term indecision. The price action suggests traders are closely watching $1.50 as a critical threshold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are sharply bearish, with the price well below both. The daily chart shows a similar trend, with the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages aligned in a downtrend. This alignment reinforces the bearish bias and suggests traders may expect further downside in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD is in bearish territory with a large negative histogram, confirming the selloff. The RSI has fallen below 30, indicating oversold conditions, though this does not guarantee a reversal. A bounce from this level could signal short-term exhaustion of selling pressure, but confirmation is needed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a contraction phase early in the session followed by a sharp expansion as price dropped. The move below the lower band reinforces the oversold condition. This expansion in volatility is often a precursor to either a reversal or a continuation of the trend, depending on order flow and volume dynamics.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early hours of the session, particularly from 06:15 to 06:30 ET, with a single 15-minute candle printing over $1.4 million in turnover. This aligns with a sharp selloff from $1.56 to $1.50, suggesting aggressive institutional or large-cap retail selling. However, the lack of follow-through volume in the last 12 hours suggests some exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $1.707 to the low of $1.425 show key levels at 38.2% ($1.593), 50% ($1.566), and 61.8% ($1.539). The price has tested and failed at the 61.8% level, indicating a strong bearish bias. On the 15-minute chart, intraday swings have tested 38.2% and 50% levels, with bearish confirmation on each.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (in this case $1.539) on the daily chart, confirmed by a bearish engulfing candle and a MACD crossover below the signal line. A stop-loss could be placed just above the most recent intraday high, and a target could be set at the next Fibonacci level or key support zone. In the case of TIAUSDT, this strategy would have triggered a short entry around $1.539 with a stop above $1.56 and a target at $1.48–$1.47. This method could be refined for volatility-adjusted position sizing and tested over multiple cycles to determine its effectiveness in varying market conditions.