Summary
• Price tested key support near 0.54–0.55 but bounced with high volume.
• Momentum shifted to bearish as RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory.
• Volatility expanded early morning before narrowing ahead of a sharp pullback.
• Doji and engulfing patterns signal indecision and potential trend reversal.
Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at 0.5664 at 12:00 ET–1, reached a high of 0.5743, and closed at 0.5438 at 12:00 ET today, with a low of 0.5320. Total volume was 9.55M TIA and turnover amounted to $5.33M in the 24-hour window.
Structure & Formations
Price action from 17:00–22:00 ET showed a bullish impulse with a strong bullish engulfing pattern near 0.5720. However, this was followed by a key bearish reversal at 0.5635 with a long upper shadow and a doji around 03:30 ET, signaling waning momentum. A critical support zone between 0.5400 and 0.5430 appears to have capped the decline, with price rebounding after forming a small bullish engulfing pattern.
Moving Averages
On the 5-minute chart, price closed below both 20 and 50-period SMAs, indicating a short-term bearish bias. Daily 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs remain unbroken but closely aligned, suggesting a consolidation phase may precede a breakout attempt in the near term.
MACD & RSI
The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early morning, confirming a bearish turn. RSI dropped below 30 by 04:15 ET, entering oversold territory, while the MACD histogram showed a steady contraction, suggesting a potential short-term rebound may be due.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded between 01:00 and 04:00 ET, with a sharp move outside the upper band, followed by a contraction and price settling near the lower band by midday. The current position near the lower Bollinger band supports the idea that further downside risk is limited in the near term.
Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during the morning bearish breakout, with a peak at 0.5605, confirming the strength of the move lower. Notional turnover surged during the 04:15–06:00 ET window, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, volume has moderated during the late ET consolidation phase, suggesting traders may be pausing before the next directional move.
Fibonacci Retracements
A key 61.8% retracement level at 0.5430–0.5445 was tested and held, suggesting this could be a near-term floor. The 38.2% level around 0.5565 is now acting as resistance, which may need to be cleared to retest the 0.5630–0.5640 zone.
Celestia/Tether may consolidate near the 0.5430–0.5450 range in the short term as buyers defend this oversold level. A break above 0.5565 could reignite bullish momentum, while a breach below 0.5390 increases the risk of a test of earlier support at 0.5320. Investors should remain cautious of volatile swings and potential divergence between price and momentum indicators.
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