Market Overview for Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) – 2025-10-11

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• Price action saw a sharp sell-off from $1.38 to $0.595, rebounding to close near $0.999 at 12:00 ET.
• Momentum accelerated during the downturn, with RSI dropping below 20 and volume spiking during the low point.
• Volatility expanded significantly post-20:00 ET, with price oscillating within a tightening Bollinger Band as of early morning.
• Volume increased gradually in the latter half of the day, with no clear divergence against price.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at $0.915 and $0.748 appear to have temporarily supported the rebound.

24-Hour Market Snapshot

Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) opened at $1.392 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $1.401, and a low of $0.233 before closing at $0.999 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. The pair experienced a total volume of approximately 106.7 million TIA and a notional turnover of $75.4 million over the 24-hour period. The price action was marked by a sharp decline driven by a spike in bearish momentum during the evening hours, followed by a partial rebound in the final hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

The price of TIAUSDT formed a strong bearish continuation pattern during the early evening, with a long bearish candle at 21:30 ET and a subsequent gap down to $0.595. A large bullish reversal candle emerged at 04:30 ET, indicating short-term buying pressure. Key support levels were identified at $0.915 (38.2% retracement) and $0.748 (61.8% retracement), both of which provided temporary floor for the price during the rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern developed at the peak of the downtrend, signaling a continuation of selling pressure.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the price traded below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages for most of the session, confirming bearish bias. Bollinger Bands showed a period of expansion during the sell-off, narrowing as the price approached the $0.90–$1.00 range. The price currently resides just below the upper band, indicating increased volatility and potential for continuation or consolidation.

MACD and RSI Momentum

The MACD turned bearish during the initial sell-off, with a significant crossover below the signal line. RSI dropped into oversold territory (<20) during the low point at $0.595 and has since recovered to 45, suggesting the rebound lacks strong follow-through. The histogram showed positive divergence in the final hours, aligning with the price rebound but not enough to signal a reversal.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Trading volume surged during the most significant downswing, peaking at over 7.9 million TIA at 21:00 ET, when the price fell to $1.206. Turnover mirrored volume spikes during that hour, reinforcing bearish conviction. In the final hours, volume increased again as the price approached $1.00, but it remains below the peak of the session. There is no significant divergence between price and volume at the close, suggesting the rebound may not yet be driven by strong buyer participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent $1.401 high to the $0.595 low helped identify key support and resistance zones. The $0.915 (38.2%) and $0.748 (61.8%) levels acted as short-term support. Resistance appears to be building at $1.005, where price has stalled in recent hours. A break above $1.024 or below $0.915 could signal the next major move, with directional bias depending on momentum confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed price action and technical indicators suggest a potential short-term countertrend strategy could be tested. A buy signal may be triggered on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.748) with RSI above 35 and a bullish divergence in the MACD. Alternatively, a short position could be considered if the price breaks below $0.915 with RSI below 25 and increased volume. These entry levels could be paired with trailing stop-loss orders to manage risk as the market tests key retracement levels.