Market Overview: Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) on 2025-10-07

• TIAUSDT opened at 1.541 and dropped to a low of 1.436 before closing at 1.527 on 2025-10-07
• Price action showed a sharp selloff in the 14:00–15:00 ET timeframe, with a 2.4% decline
• Volume surged during the sell-off, peaking at over 1.266 million, but failed to confirm a bullish reversal
• RSI reached oversold territory, while MACD showed bearish divergence late in the session
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the selloff, indicating heightened volatility

The Celestia/Tether (TIAUSDT) pair opened at 1.541 on 2025-10-06 at 16:00 ET and closed at 1.527 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 1.567 and a low of 1.436. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 10,289,067.08, and notional turnover amounted to $15,921,150. The pair experienced a pronounced bearish move between 14:00 and 15:15 ET, with price falling below key support levels and failing to rebound.

Structure and formations revealed a significant breakdown from the 1.53–1.55 consolidation range that had held for much of the previous day. A long bearish candle formed at 15:15 ET with a high of 1.462 and a close of 1.455, marking the most bearish print of the session. The 1.455 level coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior 1.52–1.56 rally. A potential bullish engulfing pattern did appear at 15:30 ET, but it failed to close above 1.462, suggesting continued bearish control.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed TIAUSDT closing below all key short-term lines, including the 20-EMA at ~1.533 and the 50-EMA at ~1.537. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-day EMAs were crossed during the selloff, adding to the bearish momentum. The 200-day EMA at ~1.545 acted as a key psychological level, and the pair closed below it for the first time in several days.

MACD turned bearish mid-session, with the histogram showing a clear negative expansion after 14:00 ET. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 by 15:30 ET, yet failed to trigger a strong rebound. This divergence suggests lingering bearish pressure. Bollinger Bands widened significantly between 14:00 and 15:00 ET, indicating increased volatility. Price closed near the lower band at 1.455, reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Volume surged during the selloff, with the largest 15-minute candle at 15:15 ET printing a volume of 1.266 million, while turnover hit $1.87 million in that period. The volume profile confirmed the breakdown as price moved lower. However, a divergence between the selloff in price and a slight increase in turnover near the close could suggest some accumulation at lower levels.

Fibonacci retracement levels were key during the session, with the 1.455 level (61.8%) acting as a critical support zone. On the 15-minute chart, the 1.497 level (38.2%) provided a temporary rebound point after the initial selloff, but buyers failed to hold it. The next major Fibonacci support is at 1.436, which would confirm a deeper bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves a bearish breakout trade triggered by a price closing below the 61.8% Fibonacci level and a divergence between RSI and price. A stop-loss would be placed above the previous swing high, with a target at the next 38.2% Fibonacci level. Using the October 7 selloff as a test case, the signal would have triggered at 1.462, with a stop above 1.475 and a target at 1.455. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish momentum and could have captured the 1.462–1.455 move. Further refinement may include volume filters to confirm the breakdown and filter false signals.