Market Overview for Cartesi/Bitcoin (CTSIBTC): October 4, 2025

• Price declined 0.156% from $6.4e-07 to $6.1e-07 over the last 24 hours.
• Volume surged on downward moves late in the cycle, with key declines below prior lows.
• RSI and MACD both showed bearish momentum, suggesting potential for further consolidation.
• Low volatility and flat price action suggested a lack of strong directional bias.

The Cartesi/Bitcoin (CTSIBTC) pair opened at $6.4e-07 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $6.1e-07 the following day at the same time. The 24-hour high and low were both observed at $6.4e-07 and $6.0e-07, respectively. Total traded volume amounted to 145,552.0, while notional turnover reached $86.83 (calculated from volume and average price).

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period was characterized by a prolonged consolidation phase followed by a sharp descent starting from 04:45 ET. A bearish breakdown below $6.3e-07 on the 15-minute chart signaled a loss of support, leading to a series of lower closes. A notable 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed around 04:45 ET at $6.3e-07 to $6.1e-07. The pair failed to recover above this level for the remainder of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias. A doji formed briefly at 04:30 ET as a potential pause in selling, but it failed to hold as prices continued downward.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned, both trending lower. This indicated a continuation of bearish momentum. MACD crossed below the signal line in the late hours of October 3, with a negative histogram that continued to widen through the early morning of October 4. RSI dropped below the 30 threshold into the oversold zone and failed to recover, suggesting short-term exhaustion among sellers. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was slightly above the 200-period MA but trending downward, indicating a medium-term bearish tilt.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Retracements

Volatility remained muted throughout the session, with Bollinger Bands tightening around the 20-period MA, suggesting a potential for a breakout. Price remained below the middle band and near the lower band at the close. On the 15-minute chart, a key Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% was reached at $6.2e-07 before the price broke down further. Daily Fibonacci levels showed limited relevance as the pair remained within a tight range, with no clear directional move to anchor a larger retracement structure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the downward phase from 04:45 ET, with a single 15-minute candle at that time showing 26,482 volume units, the highest of the session. This was accompanied by a large notional turnover of $16.37. The divergence between early session volume and late session volume highlights the bearish conviction behind the downward move. However, the subsequent consolidation period saw low volume and minimal price movement, indicating a lack of buyers entering the market at lower levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves identifying a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart followed by a volume surge. If the price breaks below a key support level confirmed by the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, a short position is triggered with a stop-loss above the recent swing high. This aligns with the observed breakdown at $6.3e-07 and the subsequent move to $6.1e-07. The strategy would have been activated during the 04:45 ET candle and would have held through the session, yielding a potential 4.7% return (excluding fees). A trailing stop or exit at the end of the session would have been optimal given the lack of a strong rebound.