Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY)

Summary
• Price formed a bullish reversal pattern after falling to a 24-hour low near 75.84.
• Volume spiked during the rebound, confirming strength in the 78.0–80.0 range.
• RSI shows moderate momentum, but overbought conditions appear unlikely in the short term.

Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) opened at 82.49 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 75.84 and 82.72 before closing at 82.16 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 5,540,428.6 over 24 hours, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥441,734,685. Price action showed a strong bounce from a key support zone around 76.0, suggesting potential follow-through buying.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish reversal pattern at the 75.84–76.64 level, confirmed by a strong rebound into the 79.0–81.0 range. A 15-minute doji near 80.12 also hints at short-term indecision. The 80.0–81.0 level appears to be consolidating as a key support/resistance cluster.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging with price, suggesting a potential continuation of the rebound. The 50-period MA remains below price, offering a slight bullish bias. Daily chart averages indicate a longer-term bearish trend, with the 200-period MA acting as overhead resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned positive, aligning with the recent rally. RSI-14 is currently at 54, indicating moderate momentum without extreme overbought or oversold conditions. A move above 82.72 could trigger a retest of the 83.0 level, potentially pushing RSI into overbought territory.

Bollinger Bands

Price is currently near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting rising volatility. A contraction in the bands is expected if price stabilizes in the 80.0–82.0 range, indicating a potential for a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 18:00–20:00 ET window as price fell to 76.12 before rebounding. This divergence between bearish price action and strong buying volume suggests accumulation. Turnover rose alongside the rebound, reinforcing the bullish signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price is retesting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent 75.84–82.72 swing, at around 81.48. A break above this level could aim for the 100% extension at 87.0. Daily chart retracements indicate a key support at 74.0 and resistance at 89.0.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the recent bullish setup, a backtesting strategy using RSI-14 on a confirmed ADAJPY symbol could provide valuable insight. Signals are typically triggered when RSI exceeds 70 (overbought) or drops below 30 (oversold), with positions held for three trading days. This method can confirm if the current bounce is part of a broader trend or a temporary rebound.