Market Overview for Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY)

• ADAJPY opened at 119.34 and closed at 99.94 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of 140.0 and low of 46.51.
• A major selloff occurred around 21:30 ET, dropping price from ~117.72 to 83.61 on high volume.
• Price rebounded after 00:00 ET with a bullish move toward 102.88, but failed to sustain above 103.5.
• RSI hit oversold levels in the early session, while MACD showed bearish divergence in the afternoon.
• Volatility expanded sharply post-20:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands widening and volume surging to ~713k.

At 12:00 ET on October 11, 2025, ADAJPY opened at 119.34, surged to a high of 140.0, dipped to a 24-hour low of 46.51, and closed at 99.94. Total volume reached 1,358,600 units, with a notional turnover of 123.7 million Yen over the period.

Structure & Formations

The price experienced a sharp bearish breakdown from ~117.72 to 83.61 on the 15-minute chart, forming a bearish engulfing pattern and a long lower shadow on the candle at 21:30 ET. This was followed by a rebound forming a bullish morning star pattern around 02:30–03:45 ET. A doji appeared at 03:15 ET, signaling indecision and a potential turning point. Key support levels emerged at 97.72, 96.05, and 94.87, while resistance levels were observed at 99.44, 100.09, and 101.48.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both showed a bearish crossover post-20:00 ET, reinforcing the downward momentum. However, the 50-period line began to stabilize by 01:00 ET, hinting at potential support. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a long-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative at 19:30 ET, confirming bearish momentum, while the RSI dropped below 30 by 21:00 ET, hitting an oversold level at 26.4. However, the price failed to break above the 100.09 resistance line after a strong morning rebound, suggesting a potential false breakout and bearish exhaustion. A bearish divergence was visible in the MACD during the afternoon decline.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp price drop from ~117.72 to 83.61, reaching a width of over 50 Yen by 21:30 ET. After the rebound, the price tested the upper band multiple times but failed to break above it, indicating a consolidation phase. The bands are now narrowing slightly in the morning session, hinting at potential range-bound trading.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 713,112.2 at 21:30 ET, coinciding with the sharp bearish move, while turnover surged to ~6.6 million Yen during the same period. A divergence was noted between volume and price after 00:00 ET — higher turnover accompanied a stronger price move — suggesting increased conviction in the bullish phase. However, volume dropped sharply after 03:45 ET, indicating potential exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from 83.61 to 101.83, key retracement levels were observed at 94.87 (38.2%) and 100.09 (61.8%), both acting as short-term pivots. On the daily chart, the broader Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 140.0 to the low of 83.61 suggest a 61.8% retracement at 114.38 as a potential resistance target for near-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could target short-term long entries based on a bullish engulfing pattern forming at key Fibonacci retracement levels (e.g., 94.87 to 99.44) and RSI turning above 30. A stop loss could be placed below the next major support (96.05), with a target aligned with the 61.8% retracement at 100.09. Given the recent volatility and divergence in MACD, this strategy would likely perform best in a low-volatility consolidation phase, with strict risk management being essential due to the high volatility observed in the past 24 hours.