Market Overview: Cardano/Yen (ADAJPY) 24-Hour Technical Update

• ADAJPY opened at 137.48, with a 24-hour high of 138.91 and low of 132.15 before closing at 132.95.
• Price saw a bearish trend after forming key bearish patterns and breaking key support levels.
• Volume surged in the second half of the day, confirming downside momentum with a total 24-hour volume of 1,525,701.4.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought to oversold transition, while Bollinger Bands indicated expanding volatility.
• Turnover and price diverged briefly in early morning, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short term.

The ADAJPY pair opened at 137.48 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 132.95 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 138.91 and low of 132.15. Total volume reached 1,525,701.4, and notional turnover reflected the aggressive bearish bias seen in late hours. The price action was driven by a strong break of key support levels, culminating in a significant selloff in the 04:15–05:00 ET time frame.

Structurally, ADAJPY tested and broke the 135.72–136.8 level, a prior consolidation range, and then continued lower through 134.32. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning of 09-19, confirming the bearish momentum. A long-tailed bearish candle at 04:15 ET (closing at 134.32) highlighted exhaustion in the short term. The 132.15 level appears to offer some support, though it may only hold temporarily if volume remains low.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish crossover of 20-period and 50-period lines during the 04:15–05:00 ET window, reinforcing the downward bias. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50-day and 200-day MAs, which could increase the probability of further bearish extension over the next few sessions. MACD crossed into negative territory around 05:00 ET, aligning with the RSI entering oversold territory by 05:30 ET, suggesting a potential short-term pause in the decline. However, without a bullish reversal pattern or a clear rebound in volume, the bearish bias remains intact.

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of contraction between 01:00–02:00 ET, followed by a significant expansion as the price moved lower. The price now sits near the lower band, indicating a high degree of volatility and bearish sentiment. Using Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent 138.91 high to the 132.15 low, the 61.8% level is at approximately 134.64. This level appears to have provided some short-term resistance, but with volume remaining strong below it, a further test of the 133.28 level is likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy that could be evaluated with the above ADAJPY data involves using the RSI crossover and bearish engulfing patterns as entry signals, combined with Fibonacci retracement levels as target and stop-loss placements. For example, an entry trigger could be set when RSI crosses below 60 while a bearish engulfing pattern forms, with a stop-loss above the recent swing high and a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the observed price action and volume confirmation on 2025-09-19, this strategy would have yielded a successful short signal during the 04:15–05:00 ET period. Further testing over multiple cycles would help determine the robustness of the approach under varying volatility conditions.