Market Overview for BTCUSDT on 2025-08-29

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• BTCUSDT opened at $112,598.61 and closed at $110,098.81 after a 24-hour decline of -2.23%.
• Volatility spiked after 17:00 ET as prices tested key support levels, with a low of $111,425.28.
• MACD turned negative and RSI fell into oversold territory below 30, signaling potential short-term buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during the overnight hours, followed by a sharp break to the downside.
• Notional turnover reached $1.17B, with a sharp increase in trading volume after 06:00 ET.

BTCUSDT opened at $112,598.61 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $110,098.81 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour candle posted a high of $113,185.55 and a low of $111,425.28. Total volume traded was approximately 11,885.85 BTC, with notional turnover exceeding $1.17B. The session featured a sharp bearish breakdown from recent resistance levels, driven by increased volatility and negative momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour session displayed a bearish exhaustion pattern, with a strong breakdown below $112,000 and a failure to retest that level. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 21:15 ET, as the close dropped significantly below the previous candle's open. A key support level emerged around $111,500, where prices found temporary buying interest, though this was short-lived. A doji formed around $111,700 during the 04:00–04:15 ET window, signaling indecision before the final leg lower.

Moving Averages and Momentum

BTCUSDT closed below both the 20-period (15-min) and 50-period (15-min) moving averages, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price remains below the 50- and 200-day MAs, suggesting a continuation of a broader downtrend. MACD crossed into negative territory with a bearish divergence on the histogram, while RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), hinting at potential short-covering or a bounce.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility spiked late in the session as Bollinger Bands widened following the breakdown. Prior to the sharp move, bands were compressed between $112,000 and $112,400, suggesting a pre-breakout consolidation. Prices closed just below the lower band, a signal that short-term bearish momentum could persist.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged in the early morning hours (06:00–09:00 ET) and again in the afternoon (13:00–16:00 ET), aligning with the price breakdowns. Notional turnover spiked during these times, confirming bearish conviction. A divergence between volume and price did not emerge; volume increased as the price declined, offering confirmation of the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

On a 15-minute chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $111,700 acted as a key support zone before the price dropped further. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement at $113,000 failed to hold, indicating continued bearish control.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI-based backtest strategy described above could be applied to this session, as BTCUSDT entered oversold territory for a sustained period. Assuming the strategy were to enter a long position once RSI fell below 30, a buy signal would have been triggered in the early hours of 08:30–09:00 ET. Given the subsequent breakdown and lack of a bullish reversal, the exit rule—“sell on the first daily close above the entry price”—would have remained untriggered, resulting in a potential loss or a pending position.