Market Overview: Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) – Volatile 24-Hour Move with Mixed Momentum Signals

• Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) traded in a volatile range, breaking key resistance and showing mixed momentum signals.
• The price surged from $0.8183 to $0.938 but retraced sharply, closing near intraday support at $0.8227.
• Volume spiked during the morning surge but has since declined, signaling potential exhaustion.
• RSI and MACD are mixed, with RSI near overbought and MACD showing divergence.
• Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility, with price near the upper band at the peak and now returning to the center.

At 12:00 ET–1, ZKCUSDC opened at $0.8183 and traded as high as $0.938 before closing at $0.8227 at 12:00 ET. The price hit a low of $0.8042 during the session. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 2,188,179.9, with notional turnover reaching $1,806,714.25. The pair exhibited a volatile price swing, with buyers showing strength in the early hours and sellers dominating in the afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish impulse wave in the early hours, followed by a sharp bearish retracement in the afternoon, which created a potential bearish continuation pattern. Key support levels were identified at $0.8227 and $0.8132, both of which held during the session. Resistance levels at $0.8387 and $0.8535 showed mixed buying pressure. A long-legged doji at $0.8387 and a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.9161 signaled indecision and a possible reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs intersected during the morning session, signaling a potential short-term trend reversal. Price briefly crossed above the 20 SMA in the early hours but closed below it by the end of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period SMAs crossed below the 200-period SMA, suggesting a bearish bias in the broader context. The recent price action appears to be testing the 50-period SMA as a dynamic support/resistance level.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early morning, coinciding with the price break of $0.8387. However, the indicator diverged in the afternoon as the price moved lower, suggesting weakening momentum. RSI reached overbought territory at $0.8535 before retreating and entered oversold territory at $0.8042, indicating a potential bounce. The mixed signals suggest the pair may consolidate before breaking out.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning surge, with the price reaching the upper band at $0.868 before retreating. Volatility contracted during the midday consolidation phase, with price consolidating between the middle and lower bands. The closing price of $0.8227 is near the middle band, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend or a short-term bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning rally, with the largest 15-minute candle (07:00–07:15 ET) contributing $169,357.1 in turnover. Volume declined sharply in the afternoon, suggesting weakening conviction in the bearish move. Price and turnover aligned during the morning phase but diverged in the afternoon, with lower turnover supporting the bearish move. This divergence may signal a potential false breakout or a failed continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning rally from $0.8042 to $0.8684, key levels of 38.2% ($0.8376) and 61.8% ($0.8477) were tested but failed to hold. The price retested the 50% retracement at $0.8363 in the afternoon, which held briefly but was not able to spark a significant rebound. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.8278 may serve as near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.8278) with a stop above the 50-period SMA, given the recent bearish divergence in MACD and RSI. A target could be set at the 38.2% retracement level ($0.8155), with a stop-loss near the upper Bollinger Band at $0.845. This setup would test the strength of the bearish bias and the validity of the Fibonacci levels as predictive tools in the near term.