Market Overview: Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis

Summary
• ZKCUSDC traded lower by -1.55% over 24 hours, closing near support at 0.1794.
• Momentum shifted bearish with RSI below 50 and a bearish divergence in price and volume.
• Volatility remained contained, with Bollinger Bands narrowing post-20:00 ET.

ZKCUSDC opened at 0.1806 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1794 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1852 and a low of 0.1751 during the 24-hour window. The pair recorded a total volume of 1,011,394.0 and a notional turnover of approximately $182,165.00 (assuming 1 ZK = $1.00 for turnover calculation), indicating moderate trading activity with several price corrections.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed multiple key levels. A strong support emerged near 0.1794, holding for much of the day as traders appeared to defend that area. Resistance formed at 0.1825 and above, with failed attempts to break through indicating a bearish bias. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed between 20:15 ET and 20:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. A doji near 0.1823 suggested indecision and potential exhaustion of the short-term rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, reflecting a bearish bias in short-term momentum. The 50-period MA acted as a dynamic resistance line, with price repeatedly failing to close above it. On the daily chart, the 200-period moving average remains bearish, with price still below it and the 50-period MA crossing lower.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the final hours of the session, with a negative crossover forming and the histogram contracting, suggesting fading bullish momentum. RSI declined from overbought levels (70+) to below 50, indicating a loss of buying pressure. A bearish divergence was noted between price and RSI after 00:00 ET, where price formed higher highs while RSI made lower highs, suggesting a potential bearish reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were relatively narrow during the early hours, signaling low volatility. However, they expanded after 01:15 ET, coinciding with the sharp rally to 0.1852. Price spent most of the session below the middle band and near the lower band during the final 6 hours, indicating bearish dominance and potential for further downward movement. A breakout below the lower band could trigger a new leg down.

Volume & Turnover

Volume distribution showed increased bearish participation in the late evening hours as price declined from 0.1852 to 0.1794. A volume spike of 15,210.0 occurred at 01:15 ET as the pair surged to 0.1852, but the subsequent sell-off was not supported by equally strong bearish volume, suggesting some indecision. Turnover remained consistent with no significant divergence, indicating broad participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1751 to 0.1852, key levels of 0.1825 (61.8%) and 0.1803 (38.2%) acted as resistance and support, respectively. Price found temporary support at 0.1794, below the 38.2% level, suggesting further downward potential. Daily Fibonacci levels also showed bearish alignment, with the 61.8% retracement at 0.1751 acting as a key floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed bearish divergence in RSI and the breakdown below the 50-period moving average, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short trade triggered at 0.1803 with a stop above 0.1825 and a target at 0.1772. This setup would aim to capitalize on the bearish momentum confirmed by both volume and price action. A trailing stop could be applied after a successful 0.3% move lower to lock in gains. This hypothesis aligns with the technical signals seen during the 24-hour period, offering a structured approach to the current bearish bias.