Market Overview: Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) – 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum

Summary
• Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) closed at $0.1896, down from $0.1936, with a 24-hour low of $0.1837 and high of $0.1945.
• Volume surged to 585,129.5, with turnover at $110,978.30, but price and turnover diverged during key downward moves.
• Momentum shifted to bearish after 19:00 ET, with RSI entering oversold territory and a 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart.

Market Overview: Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC)

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at $0.1936 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of $0.1945, a low of $0.1837, and closed at $0.1896 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. Total volume reached 585,129.5 with $110,978.30 notional turnover. The asset showed a bearish shift as a descending channel took hold after a sharp early pullback from $0.1945 to $0.1883 before a partial rebound to $0.1897.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels have formed near $0.1870 and $0.1855, with a recent rejection from $0.1839 indicating a possible short-term floor. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 19:15 ET as price collapsed from $0.1904 to $0.1883. A doji at $0.1866–$0.1866 during consolidation on 23:15 ET suggested indecision before a further decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA (death cross) near $0.1870 at 05:30 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. The daily 50SMA sits at $0.1890, slightly above the 200SMA at $0.1878, indicating a mixed near-term bias. Price remains below the 100SMA at $0.1883, which could serve as a potential resistance level on a rebound.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD line crossed below the signal line near $0.1865 at 05:30 ET, confirming a death cross and aligning with the price action. RSI dipped into oversold territory at 30, last seen at $0.1853 during the 00:00–00:30 ET window. This may signal a potential short-term bounce, but confirmation is needed to gauge the strength of the reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Price has been trading near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the session, especially after 19:00 ET, with volatility remaining relatively stable. A contraction in band width occurred between 00:15–00:45 ET, followed by a bearish breakout. Current price of $0.1896 resides within the 15-minute band, but closer to the lower boundary, suggesting a potential for further downside or a test of the upper bound on a rebound.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred at 19:15 ET with 48,503.1 units and $8,875.50 turnover, coinciding with the drop from $0.1904 to $0.1883. A divergence is evident after 00:00 ET as price continued lower despite a drop in turnover. This could imply a lack of conviction in the bearish move, but confirmation is needed on the next candle’s close.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute move from $0.1945 to $0.1837, the 38.2% retracement level at $0.1889 was tested but failed. The 61.8% level at $0.1862 was breached, and price is now hovering near the 50% retracement level at $0.1891. This zone could see a pullback or a continuation of the downward trend depending on volume and order flow.

Backtest Hypothesis

The event-study backtest on ZKCUSDC reveals that MACD death-cross signals have been rare since 2022, with only one valid occurrence on 2025-09-23. Over the 30-day post-event window, the token underperformed, with a cumulative return of -67% versus the benchmark’s -47%. The lack of positive days during the observation period highlights a bearish bias following the signal. Given the limited sample size, these results may not be representative, and further monitoring is recommended before making tactical decisions.