Market Overview for Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) as of 2025-10-07

• ZKCUSDC declined 24 hours, falling from 0.3291 to 0.3081, a 6.4% drop
• Volatility surged with a 15-minute high-low range of 0.3340 to 0.3020
• RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, indicating heightened uncertainty
• Volume increased in the final hours, coinciding with a sharp price decline

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.3291 at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 0.3081 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3340 and a low of 0.3020. Total volume over 24 hours was 1,331,939.3 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $432,547. The 24-hour decline reflects aggressive bearish pressure, especially in the final six hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the start of the session, followed by a prolonged downtrend punctuated by a key bearish pinbar at 0.3100. The price then broke below the 0.3200 support level, with no immediate signs of rejection. The 0.3340 high served as the first resistance, while the 0.3074 low appears to be a key support level. A long lower wick on the 0.3140 to 0.3099 candle suggests some short-term buying interest, but this was quickly overwhelmed by selling pressure. The 0.3245 level may re-emerge as a pivot zone in the near future.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, reflecting bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, forming a death cross, which adds bearish confirmation. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period MAs remain above price, but the 200-period MA is providing a long-term floor at ~0.3185. The convergence of the 50- and 100-period MAs suggests a potential flattening of the bear trend in the coming sessions.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in early trading, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram remains negative and is widening slightly, suggesting ongoing selling pressure. RSI has dropped sharply to the 25–30 range, indicating overbought conditions have reversed into oversold territory. This suggests a potential near-term bounce, but without a strong reversal candle, the trend may remain intact.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, with the 20-period standard deviation widening to 0.0105. The current price of 0.3081 is trading just below the lower band, indicating a low-probability bounce scenario. The recent contraction in volatility occurred just before the sharp decline, suggesting a pre-breakout setup may have failed. A retest of the lower band could trigger a short-term reversal or further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final hours of the session, particularly between 14:30 ET and 16:00 ET, with over 108,475.6 units traded in the hour that saw the price fall from 0.3132 to 0.3074. This volume spike confirmed the bearish break below the 0.31 support zone. Notional turnover reached $432,547, showing that the decline was not due to thin volume but rather aggressive selling. A divergence is noted between the price and volume in the 11:30–13:00 ET range, where volume did not confirm the rally.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.3340–0.3020 swing, the 0.3136 (38.2%) level failed to hold, while the 0.3076 (61.8%) level appears to be the immediate target for further bearish movement. The 0.3245–0.3260 zone may act as a key pivot point, and a rejection there could signal a near-term bottom. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 0.3317–0.3196 swing suggest support at 0.3266 and resistance at 0.3299.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy in question involves a reversal-based approach that enters long positions when price closes above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, and short positions when price closes below it, with a stop-loss at the recent swing high or low. In the context of the ZKCUSDC move, the 50-period MA dipped below the 20-period MA early in the session, triggering a short signal. Given the aggressive bearish continuation and confirmation by RSI and MACD, this setup would have yielded a winning short trade. A long signal would not have been triggered during the 24-hour period, as the 50-period MA remained below price. This suggests that the strategy could perform well in trending environments, but may struggle during consolidation phases.