Market Overview for Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) on 2025-09-25

• Boundless/USDC declined 20.5% over the past 24 hours, closing near intraday lows.
• A bearish trend is confirmed by successive lower closes and expanding volatility.
• Heavy volume and turnover surges occurred post-midnight ET, amplifying bear momentum.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term reversal, though caution is warranted.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling heightened downside pressure.

Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.6835 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.6046 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.6841 and low of 0.5738. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 567,055.4, and notional turnover was approximately $342,617.62.

The price structure displayed a clear bearish bias throughout the day, with a series of lower highs and lower lows forming a descending pattern. Key support levels were tested around 0.6000 and 0.5800, and a notable bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart during the early morning ET. A long lower shadow was observed in the 05:00–05:15 ET candle, indicating rejection of lower prices, but it failed to hold, as the price resumed the downtrend shortly after. A doji at 05:45 ET signaled potential indecision in the market, but it was followed by bearish continuation.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the price below both the 20-period and 50-period lines, confirming the short-term bear trend. The daily chart showed the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages all aligned in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours of the morning, signaling bearish momentum. RSI hit an oversold level of 28.2, which may indicate a potential short-term bounce, but the lack of follow-through suggests caution.

Bollinger Bands were wide throughout the session, with price testing the lower band multiple times. A contraction occurred briefly during the 04:00–04:15 ET period, but it was quickly followed by a breakout to the downside. The volatility expansion and multiple touches of the lower band suggest strong bearish pressure and weak support levels. Volume surged during the overnight hours, particularly between 00:30–01:00 ET and 12:30–12:45 ET, confirming the bearish move with increased notional turnover. However, a divergence was observed between price and volume during the 05:00–06:00 ET session, where prices continued to fall but volume declined, which could hint at exhausted selling pressure.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent 15-minute swing high (0.6841) to low (0.5738) identified key psychological levels at 0.6226 (38.2%) and 0.5912 (61.8%). The price briefly held the 61.8% level before breaking through, reinforcing the bearish outlook. On the daily chart, the 0.618 retracement level of the larger weekly swing was also broken, indicating further downside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions upon a bearish engulfing pattern forming during a downtrend, confirmed by a RSI reading below 30 and a close below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed above the recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level (38.2% or 61.8%). Historical testing on ZKCUSDC would need to validate the strategy’s win rate and risk-reward ratio, but the combination of price patterns, RSI, and moving averages aligns with the strategy’s conditions. Given the current setup, the strategy could have triggered a short signal at 05:00 ET and closed at the 61.8% level at 0.5912.