Market Overview for Boundless/USDC (ZKCUSDC) – 2025-09-19

• Price declined 10.15% from 0.7454 (open) to 0.7253 (close), with a high of 0.7804 and a low of 0.7175.
• RSI reached oversold territory late in the session, suggesting a possible near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning hours, with large-volume breakdowns below key support levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.7804, followed by a deep retracement below 0.7300.
• The final hour saw a sharp drop into 0.7175, driven by high turnover and a volume spike of 89,699.2 USDC.

The Boundless/USDC pair (ZKCUSDC) opened at 0.7454 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.7253 at the same time on 2025-09-19. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.7804 and a low of 0.7175, with a total traded volume of 1,584,756.4 USDC and notional turnover of 1,187,733.9 (amount × price). Price action featured a bearish breakdown from key psychological levels, with a sharp drop in the final hour.

Structure & Formations

Price tested and broke a strong support level around 0.7300, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a long bearish candle at the 0.7368–0.7296 range. A doji near 0.7296 hinted at indecision, but buying interest failed to materialize. A bearish flag formation developed from 0.7350 to 0.7253 as bearish momentum picked up. The final breakdown at 0.7276–0.7175 suggests further weakness unless a strong rebound forms.

Moving Averages

The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish throughout the session, with price consistently below both and widening the negative divergence. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period MA continues to act as a dynamic resistance, with price testing and breaking below it in the early hours of 2025-09-19.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded negatively in the final hours, with a bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. The RSI dropped below 30 at the session’s end, indicating oversold conditions, though without a clear reversal pattern, it may not trigger a bounce. Negative momentum remained strong, with bearish momentum waves dominating price action from 0.7754 to 0.7175.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early morning hours, with price pushing through the lower band at 0.7300 and 0.7250. A subsequent contraction followed as price moved sideways, only to break lower again with a large volume-driven candle at 0.7251–0.7175. The final candle closed near the lower band, signaling potential for a retracement, though further support testing is likely if volume does not increase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final hour with a massive 89,699.2 USDC traded at 0.7175, confirming the breakdown. Notional turnover expanded as well, with the largest turnover spike occurring during the 0.7368–0.7296 and 0.7251–0.7175 periods. A divergence in volume and price was noted around 0.7300, where volume declined during a retracement, suggesting weak bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent high of 0.7804 to the low of 0.7175 were tested, with price holding at 61.8% (0.7385) before breaking below 0.7300. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% level at 0.7554 offered temporary resistance, but failed to hold. Price is now likely to test the 61.8% level of the current move, approximately 0.7205, before attempting a near-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing patterns and confirmation via RSI and MACD, a short-term bearish bias appears to be in place. A backtest strategy could target the 0.7205 Fibonacci level as a potential short entry, with a stop-loss placed above 0.7300 and a target at 0.7150. The final hour's breakdown suggests that a continuation of the trend is probable, provided volume increases again in the next session to confirm renewed bearish momentum.