Market Overview for Bonk/Tether (BONKUSDT) – October 7, 2025

• Price declined from 2.148e-05 to 1.992e-05 over 24 hours, with strong selling pressure observed after 22:00 ET.
• Volatility expanded in the morning (high of 2.206e-05), followed by a sustained pullback into the late afternoon.
• RSI approached overbought levels twice but failed to confirm strength, signaling bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands widened early before contracting, suggesting a possible consolidation phase ahead.
• Notional turnover spiked above $110M during the early afternoon selloff, highlighting distribution activity.

Bonk/Tether (BONKUSDT) opened at 2.13e-05 at 12:00 ET–1 and traded as high as 2.206e-05 before closing at 1.992e-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour notional turnover of $587.4M on a total volume of 3.94B units, showing strong engagement during bearish periods. The price action reflects a clear top-heavy candle on the daily chart, with key resistance levels at 2.18e-05 and 2.20e-05 failing to hold.

Over the past 24 hours, BONKUSDT has formed a bearish trendline from the 2.206e-05 high to the 1.992e-05 close. The 15-minute chart shows several bearish engulfing patterns in the late afternoon and early evening hours, which signal continued downward momentum. The 20 and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price in a bearish “death cross,” reinforcing the short-term downside bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs are aligned in a downtrend, with the price well below all of them.

The MACD histogram turned negative after 20:00 ET, with the line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI fell below 40 and remains in neutral to bearish territory, though it did not reach oversold levels, suggesting the decline could continue. Bollinger Bands expanded in the early afternoon after the 2.206e-05 high, followed by a sharp contraction as the price drifted downward. This pattern suggests a period of range-bound consolidation may follow.

Volume and turnover spiked during the early afternoon selloff, particularly between 17:15 and 19:45 ET, when notional turnover exceeded $110M. This suggests a significant amount of distribution activity occurred during that time. The price action and volume profile confirm bearish sentiment, with no divergence observed between price and volume. The lack of buying interest during the rally attempts implies further weakness could follow.

Using Fibonacci retracement levels from the key swing high (2.206e-05) and low (1.992e-05), the pair has tested 61.8% at approximately 2.049e-05 and is now approaching the 78.6% level at 2.009e-05. The 38.2% level at 2.103e-05 held briefly before breaking, indicating that further downside remains likely unless buyers step in at the lower retracement levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on using a combination of RSI and MACD to identify overbought conditions followed by bearish momentum confirmation. A sell signal is generated when RSI exceeds 70 (overbought) and the MACD line crosses below the signal line, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period SMA. Given the recent pattern on BONKUSDT, such a strategy would have captured the bearish move after 17:15 ET, when RSI peaked near 60 and MACD turned negative. This suggests the approach is well-suited for this type of bearish consolidation, though it would require strict risk management due to the volatile nature of the asset.