Market Overview for Bonk/Tether (BONKUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price fell 4.5% over 24 hours, closing near 2.032e-05 after a bearish trend from 2.145e-05
• High volatility and volume spikes confirmed bearish momentum, with RSI entering oversold territory
• A key support at 2.018e-05 was tested and held, but resistance at 2.06e-05 failed to hold
• Bollinger Bands showed a recent contraction, hinting at potential breakout or breakdown
• MACD turned negative, signaling weakening bullish momentum in the near term

The Bonk/Tether (BONKUSDT) pair opened at 2.036e-05 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 2.032e-05 the next day. The 24-hour range was between 1.993e-05 (low) and 2.173e-05 (high). Total volume reached 718,722,249,177.0 with notional turnover of approximately $14.49 million. The market exhibited heightened bearish pressure in the late hours of 2025-10-03 and early 2025-10-04, marked by large red candles and increasing volume.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart revealed a bearish exhaustion pattern as price failed to hold key resistance levels, particularly the 2.06e-05 and 2.08e-05 levels. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 2.07e-05, confirming the downward shift. Support was tested at 2.018e-05, where buyers briefly intervened, but the formation failed to produce a reversal. A morning doji around 2.03e-05 signaled indecision, suggesting potential volatility ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA early on 2025-10-04, confirming the bearish trend. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA was above the 200-period MA, indicating a bearish bias. However, the 100-period MA acted as a dynamic support level in the morning, which was later breached, reinforcing the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the early hours of 2025-10-04, indicating a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The histogram expanded as the bearish pressure increased. RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30) by 15:00 ET, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. However, RSI failed to form a bullish divergence with price, casting doubt on the strength of any potential rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the early hours of 2025-10-04, hinting at a potential breakout. However, the price ultimately moved downward, breaking below the lower band. The move was confirmed by increasing volume and bearish momentum, indicating that volatility expanded following the breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning hours of 2025-10-04, particularly between 06:15 ET and 06:30 ET, when the price dropped from 2.069e-05 to 2.145e-05. Notional turnover spiked in the same period, confirming the bearish sentiment. In contrast, late afternoon trading showed a decrease in volume and turnover despite a small price bounce, indicating weak conviction in any short-term bullish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 2.069e-05 to 2.145e-05, the 61.8% retracement level at approximately 2.043e-05 was a key area of support that failed to hold. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level (around 2.097e-05) was a significant resistance that was rejected, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent price action and technical indicators align well with a bearish breakout strategy. A potential backtest could involve a short entry when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI enters oversold territory, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period MA. A target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or the 2.018e-05 support. Given the confirmation by MACD and volume, this setup offers a high-probability trade for short-term bearish momentum.

The forward-looking view for the next 24 hours suggests continued bearish pressure if price remains below 2.04e-05. A break below 2.018e-05 could accelerate the downtrend. However, traders should remain cautious of a potential short-term rebound, especially if RSI remains in oversold territory and buyers step in to defend the 2.018e-05 level.