Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT): Volatile Recovery Amid Mixed Momentum

• Price rose from 0.0985 to 0.1006 before retracting to 0.0994, signaling volatile but indecisive momentum.
• Strong volume expansion occurred during the 13:30–14:00 ET rally, followed by a sharp reversal and high turnover.
• RSI showed overbought conditions at 76 during the 13:30–14:00 ET spike, later returning to neutral levels.
• Bollinger Band widening confirmed increased volatility, with price closing near the upper band during a key 15-minute interval.
• No clear candlestick reversal patterns formed during the 24-hour window, but multiple bullish and bearish engulfing patterns suggested shifting sentiment.

Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) opened at 0.0985 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0994 the following day at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.1006 and a low of 0.0975 during the 24-hour window, with a total trading volume of 11,216,694.30 and notional turnover of 1,099,830.92 (FIDAUSDT). The 24-hour price swing showed signs of volatility and uneven sentiment, with several spikes and retracements.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action formed a bullish breakout to 0.1006 but failed to hold above this level, closing near 0.0994. Key support levels appear at 0.0984 and 0.0982, both of which saw consolidation and partial bounces during the late morning and afternoon hours. On the higher end, resistance levels at 0.1001 and 0.1004 were tested and partially broken but failed to sustain a bullish breakout. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0985-0.0994 during the 17:30–18:00 ET window, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0994–0.0984 during the 22:30–23:00 ET window, signaling mixed sentiment. A doji formed at 0.0989 between 05:00–05:15 ET, suggesting indecision at that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed the 50-period SMA twice: once long at 0.0987 during the early afternoon and then short at 0.0997 later in the evening. This suggests a potential shift in momentum from bullish to bearish over the last 12 hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA remains above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. The price closed below the 200-period SMA, which currently sits around 0.0989, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 0.0987 during the afternoon and later crossed below it at 0.0997 during the evening, suggesting a loss in bullish momentum and a shift toward bearish sentiment. RSI reached overbought territory at 76 during the 13:30–14:00 ET rally but quickly returned to neutral ground. The RSI divergence between the price and momentum indicator suggests a potential pullback, especially as the price failed to close above key resistance levels during its rally.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 13:30–14:00 ET window as the price approached the upper band, indicating heightened volatility. Price action closed near the upper band at 0.0994 during a key 15-minute candle at 13:30 ET, which is a bearish sign if it closes below the middle band. The contraction in the bands during the late night and early morning hours suggested lower volatility and possible consolidation. The price remains above the middle band for the last 6 hours, suggesting possible short-term bullish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the 13:30–14:00 ET window, reaching 3,650,129.5, the highest volume for the 24-hour period. This was matched by a sharp increase in notional turnover, with the 13:30 candle showing a 56% increase in turnover compared to the previous candle. This suggests strong interest but also uncertainty, as the price failed to maintain the rally and retracted. A divergence between price and volume appears during the 05:00–05:30 ET period, with volume declining while the price remained near a key support level at 0.0984. This could indicate weakening support and potential further downside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 0.0985 low to the 0.1006 high indicate that 0.0993 and 0.0988 correspond to 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels, respectively. The price closed near the 38.2% retracement level, which aligns with the 0.0993–0.0994 range. This suggests that the market is consolidating around a key Fibonacci level and could either break higher or face resistance. On the daily chart, the 0.0984–0.1006 swing shows a 0.0989 61.8% retracement level, which coincides with a recent support area. A break below 0.0982 could lead to the 0.0979 level as the next Fibonacci target.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve long entries on a bullish engulfing pattern formation with volume confirmation and an RSI above 50, targeting a 1.5% profit with a stop loss placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Short entries could follow bearish engulfing patterns with RSI above 70 and volume divergence, targeting a 1.5% decline with a stop loss at the 61.8% level. Based on the 24-hour price action, the strategy could have triggered a long entry at 17:30–18:00 ET (bullish engulfing pattern) and a short entry at 22:30–23:00 ET (bearish engulfing pattern), with both trades closing with partial profits. This suggests a viable and balanced approach for high-frequency traders.