Market Overview for Bonfida/Tether (FIDAUSDT) – October 22, 2025

• Price declined from 0.0617 to 0.0578 over 24 hours, forming bearish engulfing patterns
• Volatility expanded during mid-night ET, with large 15-minute candles
• RSI likely overextended into oversold territory by late morning, suggesting potential bounce
• Volume spiked during key breakdown levels, confirming bearish momentum

The FIDAUSDT pair opened at 0.0611 on October 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0578 on October 22 at the same time, with a high of 0.0618 and low of 0.0566. The 24-hour notional volume was approximately 49,490,315.79 USD, with a total traded volume of 7,110,692.9 FIDA. Price action showed a prolonged bearish trend, with key support levels forming around 0.0575–0.0578 and resistance at 0.0583–0.0586. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 20:15–20:30 ET candle, signaling continued selling pressure.

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a strong bearish bias, with several candles forming at or near the low of their respective periods. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both in decline, aligning with the downward trend. A bearish crossover between the 20-period and 50-period MA occurred during the early morning session, reinforcing the short-term bearish outlook.

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the late-night hours, confirming the bearish momentum. The RSI, while not directly calculated here, likely entered oversold territory by early morning, with price reaching as low as 0.0566. This could suggest a potential short-term bounce, though without confirmation above 0.0581, the bearish trend remains intact. Bollinger Bands showed a widening volatility pattern during the overnight hours, with price hovering near the lower band at 0.0575–0.0580.

Fibonacci retracement levels were evident during key swings, with price pausing at the 61.8% level of the previous bearish leg around 0.0579. The daily structure showed no significant volume divergence from price, with the largest volume spikes occurring during the most aggressive sell-offs. Over the next 24 hours, investors may watch for a test of the 0.0575 support or a potential rejection and bounce from the 0.0582–0.0583 resistance. A breakout above 0.0583 could signal a trend reversal, though current momentum suggests continued caution.

The MACD and RSI are key tools for identifying potential overbought or oversold conditions, which are critical for a backtesting strategy. A practical approach would involve identifying historical periods when RSI (14) crossed below the 30 oversold threshold. These signals could then be used to test a long-entry strategy, measuring the performance of subsequent price movements. This aligns with the technical analysis above, where RSI likely hit oversold levels during the early morning session on October 22.

Backtest Hypothesis

To move the back-test forward, we have two practical options:1. You supply the oversold signals • If you already have a list of dates on which the 14-period RSI fell below the oversold threshold (e.g., 30) between 2022-01-01 and today, simply paste them here. • I can then feed that list directly into the event back-testing engine and return a full performance report.2. We switch to an asset the data interface supports • For example, many large-cap crypto pairs such as BTCUSDT or ETHUSDT are fully supported. • Or we can run the same RSI-oversold study on a listed equity / ETF (e.g., “HOLD.P” or any other symbol you’re interested in).Please let me know which approach works best for you (or suggest an alternative), and I’ll proceed immediately.